With their season on the line, the Toronto Raptors swapped Kawhi Leonard on Giannis Antetokounmpo. His defense might save the Raptors season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a case to be called the best basketball player in the world right now. He’s the likely MVP after averaging 28 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists on incredible efficiency during the regular season and is unquestionably the best player of a 60-win team. If the Toronto Raptors want any shot at beating the Milwaukee Bucks, it starts with slowing down Giannis.
In Games 1 and 2, the Raptors concentrated on protecting the rim. They sent soft doubles; they sent weakside help from a multitude of angles; they invited him to take jumpshots. It didn’t matter. Giannis still carved them up, and the Bucks were up 2-0.
Down 0-2, the Toronto Raptors had a host of questions about the starting lineup and possible changes Nick Nurse could make. Could Norman Powell step in for Danny Green to give the offense a punch? Should Serge Ibaka play ahead of Marc Gasol so they could switch the pick-and-roll defensively?
With their season on the line, Nurse elected not to make any changes to the starting lineup. Instead, he changed the matchups. The Raptors relied on the starting five which got them here. Most of all, they relied on the star who got them here. Kawhi Leonard matched up against Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The job Kawhi Leonard has done
In Games 1 and 2, Giannis averaged 27 points on 58-percent True shooting. In Game 3, he was held to just 12 points on 31.4-percent True shooting. Giannis finished Sunday night with more turnovers (8) and fouls (6) than field goals. He was the MVP of the first two games. He was a non-factor — at least offensively — in the third.
Against Leonard himself, the numbers were even uglier. According to NBA.com, in 41 possessions with Kawhi as the primary defender, Giannis finished 2-12 from the field with four points and a shooting percentage of 17-percent. He turned it over twice and recorded just one assist.
30 players defended Giannis on 40+ possessions this season. Only one held him to fewer points per possession than Kawhi did in Game 3 (James Johnson). ZERO held him to an equal or worse shooting percentage. There hasn’t been a better defensive game on Giannis all season than what he faced in Game 3.
How Kawhi is doing it
Everyone knows you want to force Giannis to shoot jump shots. The trick is actually making him do it. Kawhi didn’t even pretend to defend Antetokounmpo’s jump shot, sagging off with a near Ben Simmons‘ level of disrespect.
Giannis shot below 26-percent from three this season as opposed to 74-percent at the rim, per cleaning the glass. He’s going to make a couple from beyond the arc; you’ll have to live with that.
One problem with sagging off is it can serve as a runway for Antetokounmpo to pick up steam. With momentum, Giannis can overwhelm opponents with size and strength, finishing over the top.
Not Kawhi. Kawhi catches him with his massive frame and uses perhaps the best defensive hands in basketball to engulf any shot attempt.
That’s a layup against 99-percent of NBA players. No offense to Siakam — who was a better defensive player than Leonard throughout the regular season — but it’s a layup against him as well. Kawhi’s unique combination of strength and elite hands make him perhaps the only player in the NBA who can stop Giannis on plays like this.
It’s a team effort
As great as Kawhi Leonard is, no one stops Giannis by himself. Toronto has protected him by switching most pick-and-roll actions involving the “Greek Freek” and are swarming the ball with multiple help defenders whenever he attempts to post up or attack the lane.
Pascal gets switched on Giannis and is quickly taken into the post. Gasol sees an opportunity for a trap and promptly blitzes him in the corner. Green sees the cutter and leaves his man to rotate. Three players helped cause this Giannis’ turnover, none of which were Kawhi Leonard.
Kawhi is also getting support at the rim whenever possible. The Raptors have focussed on bringing help defenders first, sagging off average-poor shooters whenever possible.
On the first play of the game, Giannis can’t go up with Siakam helping at the rim. He kicks it out to an unwilling shooter,
, who hesitates a few times before firing up a brick. The Raptors have decided to give this shot up if it means stopping Giannis.
But you can’t do it without an intelligent primary defender. Kawhi knows where his help is on the above play and forces Giannis right into it. A player with a lesser basketball-IQ can leave other defenders out to dry. Kawhi is always mindful of helping his teammates help him.
Can he sustain this?
It’s the question which could determine the Raptors season. Can Kawhi Leonard continue to be the primary offensive option, responsible for generating 30+ points on the offensive end, while guarding the opposing team’s best player?
At this point, it’s hard to say. But regardless of the answer, the Raptors are going to find out. Down 2-1 against a juggernaut Bucks team, Toronto doesn’t have any other options.
If Giannis didn’t get locked up in Game 3, the Bucks win, and the Raptors season is effectively over. Toronto doesn’t have the luxury of managing Kawhi’s workload any longer. You can’t push him beyond what he’s capable of giving you on a night-to-night basis, but there is no more worrying about future rounds.
Cumulative fatigue is bound to set in at some point; the Raptors are just hoping it’s after the season is decided. Toronto rested their star for 20+ games during the regular season. They rested him to prepare him for this.
It’s not fair to ask Leonard to do so much on both sides of the ball. But it’s what you ask of a superstar. When the season is on the line, and every game is another chance to be sent home, teams turn to their best players to carry them. Kawhi Leonard will have to carry the Toronto Raptors from this point forward.