You play GM: Decide the fate of the Toronto Raptors offseason
Kawhi stays
C’mon folks. He’s staying. Kawhi Leonard is not going to leave Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, and the defending NBA Champions to join injured Danilo Gallinari and 32-year-old sixth man. He’s not leaving.
So what’s next?
First, let’s assume Gasol opts into his $25 million player option. He’s a 34-year-old center in a league going small. His defense and perimeter shooting are valued by the league, but they’re not valued at $25 million. The prudent move is for him to return.
With Kawhi and Gasol both coming back, Toronto will be operating as an “above the cap” team. They won’t be able to bring in free agents, — unless they use one of their available exceptions — and in a trade, they cannot take more than 125% +100K of the money they send out.
That means Jeremy Lin and Patrick McCaw are probably headed elsewhere. Toronto can offer them both slightly more than their minimum contract, but both are good enough to receive at least a couple of million on the open market.
The other, non-minimum player on the Raptors roster is Danny Green. The 3-and-D wing is a perfect fit for a contender. With Toronto already above the cap, if Green leaves, he leaves for nothing.
Considering his fit, and lack of replaceability, if Leonard returns, so should Green. An older player, likely hitting the market for his last significant contract, Danny Green will want to give up less salary per year, for a longer term deal with more guaranteed money. This roster is getting really expensive really fast, so the Raptors will want to do the same.
Let’s say Danny Green signs a three-year contract worth $40 million.
Next, you’ll have to decide how to build the rest of the team:
Bring the roster back with only slight changes
The Raptors are defending NBA Champions. Clearly, the roster doesn’t need upgrades and fixes in order to make it championship caliber. Of course, there are a few areas around the margins Toronto can improve, but there is absolutely no need for wholesale changes.
Add a free agent, sign a couple of veteran FA’s to the minimum, and this team is ready to defend its title.
You’re also not going to gut the future of this team by selling off picks and young pieces. The Raptors are already set to contend for this season, you don’t need to also mortgage the future for another “star”.
Choose to keep the same overall core
Make a big splash trade
The time to win is now. Despite winning the NBA title just one season ago, the Raptors can’t afford to stand pat this offseason.
The Raptors needed a Game 7 buzzer-beater, down 0-2, and received some injury luck from the Warriors to win the title. That doesn’t take anything away from their title but instead reinforces that they’re not head-and-shoulders better than everyone else.
Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, and Danny Green are all a year older. Pascal Siakam already made one developmental leap, expecting another is asking for too much. By doing nothing, the Raptors are getting worse. Toronto needs to make a move now, and a sizeable move at that.