The Toronto Raptors Vegas win total is lower than it should be

The Las Vegas over/under win total for the Toronto Raptors is down at 45.5. With the talent coming back next season, they should be an easy over.

No bet is a sure thing. Las Vegas didn’t become rich by losing, injuries crush would-be good wagers, even the best gamblers win around the margins. With that being said, the Toronto Raptors over/under at 45.5 (according to Oddshark.com) is an incredible value.

In order for the Raptors to win back money, they would need to win 46 games next season. 46 as in five games above .500. 46 as in the lowest total the team has posted since 2012-2013 when Rudy Gay was still a key member of the team.

While Toronto won’t be a contender on par with last season’s squad, they should still compete for 50 wins next year. They have organizational stability, veteran talent, and depth throughout the roster. In a weak Eastern Conference, Toronto could finish as high as the three-seed next year.

Organizational stability

The Raptors haven’t won fewer than 48 games since Masai Ujiri has been with the organization. In year one, the team shocked the league with 48. Year two, they followed it up with 49. And since then, they’ve won 50+ every single season. They won 58 with Kawhi Leonard sitting out 22 games last season. They won 59 before Kawhi ever donned a Raptor uniform.

It sounds reductive and somewhat anecdotal, but being a franchise who consistently wins year after year matters. Having an organization with a baseline of competence can help you outproduce the win total your talent would otherwise suggest.

The Raptors aren’t the Spurs level of consistent, where you can pencil them in for 45-55 wins no matter who is on the roster. But they’re in the next group of competent teams, along with the Portland Trailblazers or Houston Rockets, teams who always seem to outperform expectations.

They have the “adults in the room” many franchises lack, and while Nick Nurse only has coached one year, he and Ujiri are trustworthy enough has organizational leaders to earn the team a few additional contests.

Veteran Talent

The Raptors lost their best player this offseason. They lost another key piece in Danny Green as well. But this is still an organization which won 58 games last season and 59 the year before. They have Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and other options returning. This team has serious production on the roster.

Three players on the Raptors roster finished with a PIPM (an advanced metric designed to show overall impact) in the top 30 last year.  That’s tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for the most in the conference.

If Pascal Siakam is an All-Star next season (very likely) and Kyle Lowry is an All-Star again (he’s made the team the past five years), Toronto will have as many All-Stars as anyone besides the Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, possibly the same as both teams.

Two All-Stars, 48 minutes of good player at the center position, and a stable of available wings should allow the Raptors to compete for a three or four seed in the Eastern Conference. The four seed has earned at least 46 wins (or the strike-shortened equivalent of 46 wins) each of the past 10 seasons.

Depth

One of the easiest ways for a bet on the over of a win total to fail is due to injury. Luckily for the Raptors, they should be able to sustain a few bumps and bruises along the way.

Behind Kyle Lowry is Fred VanVleet. Behind Marc Gasol is Serge Ibaka. On the wing, Toronto has multiple options which are largely interchangeable. In terms of injury risk, the Raptors are well-covered.

The only player who’s absence would cause serious problems is Pascal Siakam’s. (Knocks on wood) To this point in his career, Siakam has yet to sustain any type of real injury. At 25, he’s about as safe of a bet as you can get; this isn’t a bet on Kristaps Porzingis or Chandler Parsons.

If Siakam were to go down, the Raptors could survive for a short amount of time but would likely be in trouble shortly. If another starter were to miss a reasonable amount of time, they should be able to handle it better than most teams.

Compared to the rest of the league

The Raptors over/under is two wins lower than the Indiana Pacers and one win higher than the Brooklyn Nets

The Pacers won’t have Victor Oladipo to start the season, are starting two traditional centers, and lost just the guy who was their best player last season (Oladipo appeared in just 36 games).

The Nets won 42 games last season, and while they upgraded from D’Angelo Russell to Kyrie Irving, they didn’t do much else, at least to help them next season (assuming Kevin Durant sits out the entire year).

These two teams might have higher ceilings than the Raptors. If things work out for either, they could be sleepers in an Eastern Conference which has only two clear-cut teams.  But in a long regular season which rewards consistency, the Raptors are a much safer bet.

The Raptors aren’t going to finish with 58 wins next season, but they won’t finish with 45 either. They’re one of the safest bets on the board to hit their over/under total for next season.