Toronto Raptors: What are the odds of each player making the team?

Toronto Raptors - Malcolm Miller (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Toronto Raptors - Malcolm Miller (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors – Chris Boucher (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images) /

The Toronto Raptors have multiple players on partially-guaranteed or non-guaranteed contracts. With only a few spots available, what are the odds of each player making the team?

The Toronto Raptors, like most teams, have 20 players on their training camp roster. A roster which includes 12 guaranteed contracts, five partially-guaranteed deals, and three players who haven’t been promised a thing. By the end of training camp, that 20 will be reduced to just 15, along with 2 two-way deals.

Of the guaranteed contracts, almost all are absolute locks to make the final roster. Technically, there is a minuscule probability of either Matt Thomas or Terrence Davis being bumped. But the odds are low enough, they really aren’t worth considering for our purposes.

Of course, the 15 most talented players don’t always make the roster. The Toronto Raptors are a team who’s both re-stocking for the future and competing this season. The back-end of their roster will be a mix of long-term developmental projects and players who can competently produce this season if needed.

It also may come down to positional scarcity. In the Raptors case, that position is at point guard. Toronto has two options battling it out for third-string point guard, neither of which inspire much confidence.

However, most teams carry three point guards, and 33-year-old Kyle Lowry has missed an average of 14 games per season over the past three years. So, unless you trust Patrick McCaw or rookie Terrence Davis to play significant minutes as the backup point for a month of the season, Toronto will need to choose between these two options.

So there will be eight players competing for just three spots. With multiple talented players on the end of the roster, someone worthy of a roster spot is going to be left in the cold. The only question is, who?