Toronto Raptors: Five crazy predictions that might come true

As the Toronto Raptors prepare to defend their NBA title, we forecast the upcoming season. Here are our five crazy predictions that might* come true.

“You mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling,” the quote from the movie Inception was never meant to be referenced when making predictions. I certainly doubt Christopher Nolan expected the line to be used in a Toronto Raptors column. Yet, nine years later, here we are.

While it wasn’t his intention, the quote perfectly fits the state of today’s NBA predictions. Writers and analysts don’t want to predict outlandish results (at least the ones we respect), nor should they. When predicting what will happen over the course of the NBA season, we predict the most probable result. It’s the reasonable take.

But guess what, improbable stuff happens ALL THE TIME. Masai Ujiri trading for Kawhi Leonard was improbable, Pascal Siakam bursting onto the scene like the Kool-Aid Man was improbable, the Toronto Raptors winning the NBA Championship was certainly improbable. So if you’re only predicting the probable outcomes, well, you mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger.

It’s why, rather than predicting outcomes, we should be forecasting probabilities. Indexing the percentages of each item happening, rather than guessing one singular outcome.

In those probabilities are events, you would never predict but might actually happen this season — outcomes with a less than 50-percent but definitively greater than zero-percent chance. Crazy predictions that might come true.

Last year, I went 2-5 (unless you count trading Marc Gasol as trading for a “star,” which feels like a stretch). This year, I went a little bolder and went with even smaller probabilities. Let’s dream big.