Fred VanVleet’s gradual path proves Terence Davis is ahead of schedule

Terence Davis isn’t the first undrafted guard to thrive for the Toronto Raptors. Though Fred VanVleet first showed the path to success for someone in his position, Davis is surpassing expectations earlier than VanVleet ever did.

Undrafted rookies don’t often pan out in the NBA — especially not right away.

In 2016, the Toronto Raptors found one of the best of them: Fred VanVleet. Less than four years after VanVleet signed a partially guaranteed contract during NBA Summer League, he’s now a starter headed for a big payday this summer. He’s averaging 17.6 points and 6.6 assists per game this season.

Still, even as his career appears to be a best-case scenario for those who go the undrafted route, VanVleet’s first season was nothing to write home about. He logged just 294 minutes in 37 games for the Raptors, who were a perennial playoff team that appeared to have no room for a sub-6-foot rookie who couldn’t make it into the top-60 on draft night.

VanVleet spent more time with the Raptors 905 in the G League that season, averaging 16.9 points and 7.6 assists in the regular season and leading the team — along with Pascal Siakam, another then-rookie who has since become a household name — to the G League championship.

To many people at the time, that might not have meant much. If it’s any indication of the G League’s perception among average fans, look at how Basketball-Reference still has VanVleet’s name spelled wrong on his G League player page. Evidently, the development league has been crucial for Toronto; it’s helped create success stories in VanVleet, Siakam, Norman Powell and Chris Boucher for the Raptors.

All this is to say that expectations for Terence Davis had to be tempered in his first NBA season.

The Raptors signed Davis in July, just a day after his first game in the NBA Summer League. Davis scored 15.2 points nightly and shot well from beyond the arc in his final college season with the Mississippi Rebels. He also averaged 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists over three Summer League contests.

But none of that can compare to real NBA experience. It wouldn’t have been fair or realistic to expect Davis to come in and light it up from beyond the arc, where he never cracked 40 percent in college, even with the shorter three-point line.

These Raptors do have a knack for defying moderate expectations, though.

Davis defying expectations

In his rookie season, Davis has been a serviceable role player off the bench for Toronto, which has the third-best record in the entire league. For many rookies, just being serviceable is already a win. Doing it on a good team makes it more impressive. Davis has gone a step further, though

In 58 games, Davis has made 86 three-pointers, which ranks sixth among rookies. He’s also third among all rookies in three-point percentage (minimum 50 attempts), trailing only Denver’s Michael Porter Jr. and Davis’ own teammate, Matt Thomas. But Davis is the only rookie in the top-five in percentage to even crack 100 attempts. He’s sustained remarkable efficiency (currently 41.5-percent from deep) on a fairly sizeable per-game volume for a player in his role (3.6 attempts).

Even among all players — rookies and otherwise — Davis’ shooting has been impressive. He ranks in the top-25 for effective field goal percentage on spot-up jumpers (minimum 100 attempts). He usually struggles when used as the primary ball-handler, but Davis is stellar off the ball.

Despite an ever-changing role in bench units due to the Raptors’ constant flow of injuries, Davis has excelled when used as the de facto shooting guard, particularly next to VanVleet or Kyle Lowry. In 409 minutes with Lowry and Davis on the floor together, the Raptors have outscored opponents by 18.9 points per 100 possessions. In 411 minutes for the Davis-VanVleet duo, they’ve outscored opponents by 8.2 points per 100. (Interestingly, Toronto’s four best two-man combinations — minimum 200 minutes — all feature Davis.)

Davis has only started two games, both of which VanVleet and Powell sat out. On those rare occasions, he’s made the most of his opportunities. Davis scored 20 or more points in each start, shooting 9-of-16 from deep over those games.

Davis’ season-long raw numbers look like nothing to write home about: 8.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. But it’s not useful or fair to look at those numbers as an indication of his play. VanVleet’s numbers in 2017-18, his first real season as a rotation player, were quite similar to Davis’ stats right now (save for the assists). VanVleet still finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting that season, as he masterfully led an elite five-man bench unit.

Davis’ situation is obviously quite different than VanVleet’s role that year, with the Raptors now staggering their starters alongside reserves — and having no choice but to do so, as injuries have decimated their bench most nights.

In an odd way, though, Davis has replicated VanVleet’s 2017-18 impact. Amid an ever-changing bench rotation, Davis has been the one constant. As the cliche goes, sometimes the best ability is availability; Davis is the lone Raptor to play in every game so far this season.

VanVleet provided a calming presence to a youthful bench mob that season. Davis injects energy, a quick spark off the bench that can rip off three straight triples, throw down a putback dunk or force a turnover that leads to an easy bucket on the other end. The rookie Davis, just like the sophomore version of VanVleet, has propped up a bench unit that wasn’t supposed to be this good.

Davis making a more immediate impact than VanVleet

The biggest difference may very well be the timing. Both players spent the full four years playing college basketball. Both came into the league at age 22 after going undrafted. But VanVleet took a while to come along. He found himself behind three point guards (Lowry, Cory Joseph, and Delon Wright) on the depth chart as a rookie, and he spent plenty of time in the G League until his NBA opportunity came.

To most people’s surprise, Davis didn’t need that much time. Even Blake Murphy, The Athletic’s resident Raptors 905 expert who was high on Davis to begin the season, seemed to think Davis would spend a lot more time in the G League before finding his footing with the NBA club.

It’s a credit to Davis that he’s had this much of an impact, this soon. He was one of the only three bench players that Raptors coach Nick Nurse trusted on opening night. More than four months later, Davis’ role is still secure in some capacity every game. Even against the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks, he played 16 minutes and finished with 10 points after a slow start. Davis has averaged 23.1 minutes in nine February games, all of which Powell has missed due to another injury.

As an undrafted guard, Fred VanVleet gradually found a path to success in the NBA. Terence Davis is doing it all just a little bit faster.