The Raptors are beginning to realize their defensive potential

In a season plagued by injuries up and down the roster, the Raptors still have one of the best defences in the NBA. When they get fully healthy and learn how to play together, what’s already a juggernaut could start to make waves.

Kawhi Leonard brought a lot to the Toronto Raptors last season – from international media headlines which The North hadn’t experienced since the Vinsanity era to all of the accolades and memories that brought us up out of our seat, to of course; the Larry O’Brien Trophy. There was the shot, there was the laugh, there were the All-NBA Second-Team and the All-Defensive Second-Team selections, and of course, there were the 30.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists through 24 playoff games, which led some to believe that Kawhi Leonard was the end-all and be-all of the Toronto Raptors franchise.

But to say that would have disregarded Fred VanVleet’s 12 clutch fourth-quarter points in the championship-clinching game; to deem Kyle Lowry’s 11 point scoring outburst right out of the gates in Game 6 of The Finals worthless, or to overlook Pascal Siakam’s historic 32 point performance on 14-for-17 shooting in Game 1 against Golden State. Last year’s team was a whole lot more than Kawhi Leonard – and people should have known better than to think that on the morning of July 6th, 2019.

After all, it wasn’t Toronto’s offence that crowned them NBA Champions. It was their excellence on the other end of the floor, and defence cannot be played by one man. While it may be true that the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Kawhi Leonard, was the catalyst behind the Raptors defence last year, eight returning players on this year’s roster ranked ahead of Leonard in defensive rating last year. Ultimately, it was a team effort that helped the Raptors to own the 5th best opponent field goal percentage, the 8th best opponent three-point percentage, and the 9th best opponent points per game. Kawhi was just one piece – albeit a large one – of what was otherwise still a great defence.

Him leaving to Los Angeles still hurt, however spectacularly, the Raptors’ defence this season is even better than it was last year.

Filling Kawhi’s shoes

In 2018-2019, Toronto allowed opponents to score 106.7 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 34.1% from beyond the arc. This year, teams still average 106.7 points per game against Toronto, however, they are shooting 42.9% from the field, and 33.8% from three-point range, implying a sped-up pace, but overall, a better shot defence.

It would be foolish to claim that Leonard’s departure could make the Raptors a better defensive team – or at least to claim his absence as the direct and only variable contributing to a better Raptors defence – but yet it has.

To set the record straight, the improvements to this year’s defence are not due to a Leonard-less rotation. They are due to the defensive improvements of the young players who have stepped into the rotation to fill the void that Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green left behind.

For example, in an 11.1 minute per game increase, Patrick McCaw has improved his overall individual on-ball defence, allowing his opponent 1.051 points per possession when guarded by him, as opposed to 1.097 last season. While still not a great figure, it’s a step in the right direction for the 24-year-old. Despite still allowing his opponent over 1 point per possession, he’s still arguably a positive defensively. Per 36 minutes, McCaw averages 1.5 steals – a comparable number to Kawhi’s 1.9 last season. McCaw’s quickness along with his intangibles also helps him read other teams’ next pass, which is an asset for Nick Nurse in trying to chase elite shooters off the three-point line.

The healed OG Anunoby has also filled Leonard’s shoes well filling in as the starting small forward this season, contributing 3.2 defensive win shares to the team through 61 games played, as compared to Leonard’s 3.4 last season in 60 games played. Norman Powell has also enjoyed a resurgent season on both sides of the ball, which can be seen through his 16.4 points per game, in addition to his 3rd ranked defensive field goal percentage league-wide, allowing opponents to shoot only 38.0% over him. Additionally, each of the Raptors top-7 rotation players this season, except for Pascal Siakam, has improved their defensive rating. Siakam’s lack of improvement in that alienated category is understandable, given the offensive load that he’s been forced to take on. Siakam’s usage rate is up 7.8% from last season, he’s attempting 7.2 more field goals and 1.3 more free throws per game, and 3.5 more minutes of floor time in each contest.

So it’s not as if Kawhi Leonard was weighing down the Raptors defence – if anything, he taught some of the young guys on this team better defensive techniques. The reasoning behind the improved defence is ultimate that the guys who have filled the vacant minutes on the wing are playing the best defensive basketball of their careers.

Ultimately, the Raptors’ defensive versatility, combined with the fact that there are virtually no weak links on that end of the floor in Toronto’s entire rotation has them ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency, 1st in opponent points per game, 2nd in opponent field goal percentage, and 2nd in steals per game.

No Bodies, No Problem for the Toronto Raptors

In the playoffs, hot offences can sometimes flame out when star players are more aggressively game planned for, and role players on the team fail to step up. That is, in essence, what defined the Raptors playoff success up until last season. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry would be taken out of the game offensively, and secondary players – from Terrence Ross to Patrick Patterson, to even Serge Ibaka or Norman Powell – would fail to hit shots.

Conversely, a good defence is always good defence – there’s nothing you can do to make a good defender play poorly on that end of the floor, other than to play even more impressive offence. The problem lies in the fact that there’s no gameplan which any coach could come up with to make an offence run so drastically better that it would embarrass the best defence in the NBA. The defence is built on teamwork, and teamwork and defence win championships. The Raptors have all of the above, but they’ve just barely begun to scratch their potential on that end of the floor.

The Raptors rank 6th in the NBA in terms of man-games lost, and are the only team with as many injuries who own a winning record. They also own nearly 11 wins lost due to injury, which is to say that hypothetically if the team had been at full-health all year, they might have a record of 55-7 right now, on pace to win 72 games on the season, and tie the 2019-2020 Toronto Raptors for the second-best regular-season record of all-time. On average, the Raptors have missed over three players per contest this season, but the intra-locker room pandemic may finally be coming to an end. With the returns of Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol expected sometime within the next week, Raptors top-7 players will be at full health for the first time since January 28th.

Gasol’s and VanVleet’s defensive impact

Gasol, the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year is entering the final stages of his basketball career, but that’s not to say that his value defensively has dwindled. Like basketball’s version of Master Oogway, he excels at what he does until his time is up. His impact on the defensive end of the floor has never relied on his athleticism or any physical attributes beyond his frame. What makes him such a beastly defender is his know-how on that end of the floor. As could be seen from the Eastern Conference Finals last year against Milwaukee, Gasol does not need to move his feet on the perimeter to be effective. He gets in the right spot at the right time, reads the play before it happens to direct his teammates where to go, telegraphs passes before the offensive player even knows what he’s going to do, and brings help defence at just the right time. All of that was key in slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo last year, bothering him into 4.2 turnovers per game, and 44.8% shooting.

Individually this season, Gasol ranks 36th in the league in post defence, allowing opponents to score on him only 36.0% of the time on post-ups. On isolations, he only allows the offensive player to score 38.9% of the time, and he also owns 0.151 defensive win shares per 48 minutes, which ranks 12th in the league.

Undoubtedly, he serves as an anchor to the defence, and while having him on the court may not allow Nick Nurse to deploy a switch-everything type of style, it’s more likely that such a scheme would call for a small-ball lineup which wouldn’t feature Gasol anyways.

The other player whom the Raptors are on the heels of getting back is Fred VanVleet. While his offence has been most highly spoken of this year – even enough to have inserted him into the borderline All-Star conversation – his defence as one of the smallest guards in the league cannot be overlooked.

Much like a Kyle Lowry-lite, VanVleet is willing to give up nothing easy to bigger players inside, or on the glass. That’s a big part of what allows Nurse to get away with a backcourt comprised of two six-foot-tall point guards.

Defending the pick and roll, VanVleet only allows opponents to score on 39.0% of their attempts, and on spot-ups, opponents only shoot 36.1% over the Wichita State product. Additionally, as a justification of what fans have seen through Freddy’s entire career against bigger players in the post, the numbers back up the narratives of his incredible defence inside for such a small guard. Going up against VanVleet in the post, one would have a mere 33.0% chance of scoring, making Freddy the 34th last guy in the entire NBA whom you would want to post up.

With his ability to defend bigger guards, and even contribute on the glass with his 3.8 rebounds per game, Freddy is an integral part of this Raptors squad. Admittedly, there are flaws in his playstyle offensively, but he’s got a clutch factor that a lot of basketball players just don’t possess. He’s ultimately a positive player on both sides of the basketball, and despite his lack of athleticism or quickness, he uses his feel for the game to put himself in the right place at the right time and make winning basketball plays.

In the end, it’s too late for the Raptors to chase that 72-10 season that data suggests they could have had. The injury bug has taken its toll, and the Raptors cannot afford to live in the past. At the beginning of the year, analysts predicted that Toronto’s championship window had closed, but the regular season thus far has proven that it’s still very much open. This team has a chance to go deep into the playoffs, and while there are concerns that Toronto might not be able to score enough, this historically good defence won’t flame out. It’s only set to get better, and it’s going to look scarily good when it does.