Nerlens Noel vs Khem Birch: Who should the Toronto Raptors sign?

The Toronto Raptors will hope that USC center Evan Mobley falls to them in the 2021 NBA Draft in order to fix their issues at center, but they have to get a contingency plan lined up. Re-signing native Canadian Khem Birch makes a ton of sense, while making a play for New York Knicks big Nerlens Noel could also be a fruitful endeavor.

While Birch proved that he can be a much more productive offensive player than he was allowed to be in Orlando, Noel showed that he is one of the finer shot-blockers in the league, making his stamp on a revitalized Knicks team by being able to fend off anyone who dared to challenge him in the paint.

The Raptors’ lack of production at center last year was absolutely killer for the success of the team, and both Noel and Birch could be cheap alternatives that help fill a huge hole on this roster. However, bringing them both on is not happening.

The Raptors, should they miss out on Mobley, need to decide if Birch’s paint scoring or Noel’s defensive ability would be a better fit on this roster.

Would Khem Birch give the Toronto Raptors more value than Nerlens Noel?

On offense, Birch has a huge edge in both traditional and advanced stats. Birch averaged 11.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game with Toronto, which blows away the 5.4 points and 6.8 rebounds Noel averaged after Mitchell Robinson went down.

Cleaning The Glass (subscription required) shows that the Raptors were 8.5 points per 100 possessions better on offense when Birch was on the floor as compared to when he’s off.

Birch has also developed a little bit of a perimeter game. 29% on just under two attempts per game isn’t much, but it’s something. Noel, meanwhile, is a non-factor outside of the paint.

Noel is a better defensive player than Birch, as he is the only player in the league to have averaged two blocks and one steal per game last year. However, he might not be the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon compared to Birch, as advanced stats show that his raw box score numbers don’t necessarily translate to elite production.

Cleaning the Glass shows that the Knicks actually gave up 3.7 points MORE per 100 possessions on defense when Noel was on the floor, the exact same number Birch had with Toronto. While he is one of the more versatile defensive bigs in the game, his value might be a bit overstated, and if his defense has lost luster, picking Birch over him becomes the clear choice.

The Raptors ending up with Noel would be a solid move, as he can secure the rim and finish some easy shots in the restricted area. However, Birch provides enough defense to back up his ability to maneuver in the paint, and his still improving offensive game should give the Raptors confidence he can be a contributor for years to come.