Scottie Barnes must be Raptors’ go-to option in fourth quarter after 76ers loss

The Toronto Raptors haven’t exactly been subtle about the fact that they are hitching large chunks of their success in the next few seasons to the performance of former No. 4 overall pick Scottie Barnes. While he’s been up and down during his sophomore season, he has been hitting his stride of late.

In the 18 games Barnes has played in since the Jakob Poeltl acquisition, he has scored 17 points or more in nine of them. Despite the fact that he has been playing with a bum wrist in the last few games, his dominance against the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers must be recognized.

Friday night’s loss against the 76ers was yet another masterpiece from Barnes, as he scored 29 points, pulled down nine rebounds, and dished out eight assists as the Raptors turned a deficit of over 20 points into just two with a few minutes to go. Then…the wheels fell off.

Fred VanVleet committed more turnovers (six) than he had made shows (five), including three of which that came on consecutive possessions in the fourth. Pascal Siakam put up just 14 points in 42 minutes. Barnes has shown enough this season to where the Raptors must put the ball in his hands in these tense situations.

The Toronto Raptors must go to Scottie Barnes in the clutch.

Per Inpredictable, league average effective field goal percentage in clutch situations (shots with an elevated impact on win probability) is around 46%. Their Clutch Squared metric (shots in the top 1% for potential win probability impact) brings that number to around 37.5%.

While VanVleet is shooting 52% in clutch situations, his 29% eFG in Clutch Squared situations is deplorable. Siakam’s numbers (44.7% clutch, 20% Clutch Squared) are even worse.

Barnes, meanwhile, is above the league benchmarks (54.7% clutch, 41.7% Clutch Squared) in both metrics. Rather than letting Scottie take over when the chips are down, which they drafted him to do, they are content to let Siakam hold the ball for 15 seconds before VanVleet chucks up a 3-pointer from the hot dog stand on the concourse.

Scottie has shown an aptitude for finishing in close, creating in the midrange, and knuckling down on the defensive end. Barnes’ fourth-quarter outbursts have become one of the hallmarks of his sophomore season, and this development requires nurture rather than dismissal.

The Raptors are allegedly going to make Barnes one of the team’s franchise players, but they can’t do that if they are letting VanVleet ball hog in the clutch. If you’re going to go down with the Vision 6-9 and player development ships, ease up on the reins with Barnes.