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ESPN projecting Raptors’ postseason spot in 2023 is a welcome change

By Mike Luciano

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 2: President of the Toronto Raptors Masai Ujiri speaks during media day on October 2, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 2: President of the Toronto Raptors Masai Ujiri speaks during media day on October 2, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) /
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The pessimism permeating the larger NBA media landscape surrounding Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors has made its way down to the rest of the fanbase, as a team that went from 48 wins to 41 victories last season and lost one of the best players in franchise history isn’t typically viewed as a team on the rise.

The Raptors parted ways with Fred VanVleet, fired Nick Nurse, and didn’t go all-in as they tried to build a winner. The combination of all those factors converging on one another has made the Raptors one of the more popular regression picks in Darko Rajakovic’s first season.

There have been a few who have gone against the grain and predicted success for the Raptors in 2023-24, as John Hollinger of The Athletic said that Toronto will bounce back and exceed their Las Vegas win total. ESPN is also in the pro-Raptors camp in a surprising twist of fate.

A statistical model created by Kevin Pelton of ESPN has the Raps tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference, as their 42.7 projected wins are identical with the reigning conference champions in the Miami Heat. The loss of VanVleet is not hurting Toronto much in this model.

ESPN predicted 42 wins for 2023 Toronto Raptors.

This model points out that Toronto’s +1.5 point differential was sixth in the Eastern Conference despite allowing a very high 3-point percentage. According to the numbers, opposing 3-pointers against are not a factor that will typically translate from season to season.

Assuming the inefficient, ball-dominant style that VanVleet brought to the table goes away, and Masai Ujiri’s vision of “playing the right way” is implemented by Rajakovic, Toronto should have no trouble picking up a few extra wins they blew in hilarious fashion last season.

Scottie Barnes is in a pivotal third season, Pascal Siakam is still one of the best power forwards in the game, and the team will get a full season out of Jakob Poeltl (who improved their play significantly after his arrival in town).

Why can’t 42 wins be a possibility for this team? Sure, it will require a ton of gambling on the team’s internal development, but Ujiri has done that before and usually comes out of it smelling like a rose.

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