No matter how you feel about him, RJ Barrett’s future in Toronto is in serious question. Barrett is in the final year of his contract with the Raptors, and Sportsnet’s Michael Grange reported recently that real conversations about an extension have yet to happen.
In Barrett’s case, he is eligible for an extension until June 30, 2027, so if the season goes well, that could be something Bobby Webster gets done. However, with more extensions being handed out, it’s time to have a conversation about his market after Brandin Podziemski signed a five-year, $110 million rookie-scale extension with the Warriors.
While NBA Twitter has made it cool to hate on Podz, anyone who actually watches basketball knows long-term this deal has a chance to be a massive steal for Golden State. And for the Raptors, it makes the case against extending RJ Barrett even stronger.
Podz deal has set a new market for Barrett's extension
For reference, Brandin Podziemski played all 82 games last season, defends well, can handle the ball, playmake, knock down outside shots, and rebound well for a 6-foot-4 guard. He averaged 13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 37.1 percent from three on five attempts per game. These stats, along with his characteristics as a hustle-first player, are things that successful NBA front offices have shown us they value very highly. So for Podz to sign a deal worth just over $20 million when he checks that many boxes is definitely concerning for Barrett’s next deal.
If you think Barrett is a better basketball player than Podz, that's fine. I have zero issues with that. But we also need to understand that the gap isn’t that big, and Podziemski getting the deal he did should shut down any $30 million-or-higher annual extension talks around Barrett.
The NBA is in such a weird place with contracts because the top players are making a ton, and the middle tier or role players are struggling to get what feels fair to them. The role players who continue to get rewarded with big contracts are players who check at least three of these boxes: efficient three-point shooter, positional size, high-end defender, good rebounder, and smart connective passer. You tell me how many of those Barrett checks?
I’ll give him the rebounding and positional size. But that’s about it.
The issue isn’t that Barrett isn’t skilled enough; it’s that the NBA is continuing to tell us they don’t value the archetype of player he is as much as they used to. Being a good shot creator and isolation scorer doesn’t bring much value in the current game because, more than ever, teams want to give those touches to their best player. That’s why front offices have continued to prioritize surrounding their stars with players who can defend and space the floor out, two areas that Barrett isn’t particularly strong in.
Podz getting extended in that $20 million range, while already a connective, winning piece with room to grow, should make fans rethink their view on a Barrett extension. Maybe Barrett can buy into a new role when Kawhi Leonard finally gets on the court—I’m all for optimism. But his career 34.5 percent mark from three-point range and his ongoing issues as a reliable perimeter defender don’t bode well for him.
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