I think it's great to form opinions and make preconceived notions about incoming NBA prospects —because, in due time, those biases or bold predictions are either confirmed to be absolutely true or proven to be a complete oversight on the denier's part.
I, for one, was firmly on the boat of being wary of Collin Murray-Boyles' playstyle and fit within the Raptors' structure, and I certainly still have my reservations about how impactful he can be right off the bat. But seeing the work he's been putting in this offseason and the small sample size he showed at Summer League, I think some of those nail-biter worries I conjured up about CMB have subsided a bit. Not to the extent that they're totally gone, but I might be slowly becoming a Murray-Boyles believer.
And speaking of having a high belief in Murray-Boyles' game, it's clear that he is every bit the stellar defender he was praised for being. However, if there's one thing that will truly establish CMB as an unstoppable force with the Raptors, it's him developing a consistent three-point shot.
Collin Murray-Boyles needs a serviceable 3PT shot to be truly elite
Now, that's obviously the knock on CMB coming into the league, and it's largely why I was so negative about him versus selecting, say, Carter Bryant. Because, quite frankly, it looked like Murray-Boyles' jump shot was going to need a ton of refining. I don't know if I'd go so far as to call it broken per se, but it didn't look smooth, that's for sure (I think about that haunting combine video from a while back).
I think it's certainly a key point of concern for the Raptors coaching staff to address, and I feel Murray-Boyles is definitely taking the right steps necessary to improve that element of his game. However, I don’t think it would be fair to hold him to the pedestal of getting his three-point shot into the high 30s right away; that would be a tremendous development many wouldn’t see coming, but it’s also an extremely high expectation for a rookie.
The key here truly is for CMB to slowly find his rhythm in sinking those jumpers from the open corner, and being able to shoot the three-ball from the top of the key (much like Scottie Barnes has been working on, with varying levels of success). I think of pro veteran comparisons to CMB like Aaron Gordon and Draymond Green. Those two guys didn't evolve into tremendous shooters overnight, and I wouldn't even classify stellar shooting as their specialty anyway, yet they eventually developed an acceptable three-point shot as they eased into the league.
Gordon is a 33% career three-point shooter, while Green is a 32% career three-point shooter. I'd obviously hope that Murray-Boyles can improve that number a bit, but everyone has to start somewhere. He just needs to show a willingness to take those open jumpers. He might begin slow, perhaps around the low to mid-20s, but as he gets more comfortable, there's potential for improvement. The hope is that he can eventually reach around 35% at some point during his tenure with the Raptors.