Grade the Trade pitch: Raptors roll the dice on Ball brother in surprising new deal

Grading the trade for the Raptors

Lonzo Ball has the size and skillset to play either backcourt spot, and he looks like an excellent pairing next to Immanuel Quickley. At 6'6" he can take on wings or harry point guards depending on the matchup, and offensively he offers playmaking for Quickley to move off-ball, or his own 3-point shooting is dangerous enough to make him the off-ball weapon when Quickley or Scottie Barnes have the ball.

At least, that all might be the case.

Herein lies the rub: no one has seen Ball play in an NBA basketball game in nearly three years. Can he even move? Does he have the legs for a consistent 3-point shot? Has he lost agility, acceleration, top-end speed? Will he be hesitant to make moves off of that knee, limiting his ability to plant, cut or jump? How quickly until he gets injured again?

Basketball involves a lot of risks, but the mountain of risk for this deal is astronomical. The preponderance of evidence suggests that Ball will be a worse player than he was prior to his injury, and that he will be extremely susceptible to reinjury. The best-case scenario for the Raptors is that they have an only-slightly diminished version of Ball for 55 or so games this season, then he enters unrestricted free agency free to sign anywhere that he would like.

There is some long-term upside, that Ball's career gets back on track, he remains mostly healthy and he fits in with the Raptors perfectly. How likely is that to occur? The odds have to be slim. We cited Kawhi Leonard and the 2019 title earlier; if the Raptors had kept him around, however, they would have lived a life of recurrent lower-body injuries and disappointing absences at all the wrong times. Do they want to commit to that with Lonzo Ball?

The upside is real, and the fit is excellent, but the risk is mountainous. Add in that the Raptors would be sending out draft picks in this deal, rather than receiving any back for Brown, and this deal becomes untenable. Torrey Craig as the add-on is nice, a warm body at forward, but it's not enough to tip this toward reasonable for the Raptors.

Grade: C-