Grade the Trade pitch: Raptors take a swing on Houston big with untapped potential

The Toronto Raptors of this generation are focused on identifying essential elements to establish a solid foundation for their rebuild.

Scottie Barnes is widely regarded as the franchise cornerstone of the team, with his two young co-stars at the guard positions, Gradey Dick and Immanuel Quickley, expected to remain integral to the roster for the long term. RJ Barrett, however, presents an intriguing case within the context of the Raptors' rebuilding efforts.

While Barrett possesses significant talent that could help propel the team forward, he may not align perfectly with their current needs. As a result, his tenure in Toronto might not be as lengthy as many expect.

The Raptors' key big man of the future remains a pressing question for the team. Currently, veteran Jakob Poeltl serves as their anchor in the paint. While he has made significant strides in his game this season, the Raptors cannot depend on the 29-year-old Austrian to hold down the center position indefinitely.

Toronto addresses this issue by reaching out to the Rockets, famously stating, "Houston, we have a problem."

As of this writing, the Houston Rockets hold the fifth seed in the NBA's Western Conference. Their roster is a compelling blend of promising young talent, including Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, alongside seasoned veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. The team has demonstrated that they possess the foundational elements necessary for a playoff push; however, an additional boost could be instrumental in propelling them closer to the finish line.

If you didn't notice above, one name wasn't mentioned in the Rockets' young core of players. That's because he becomes the Raptors' primary target in this proposed trade: Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. was one of the most promising and highly touted prospects in his draft class. His strong collegiate campaign at Auburn caught the attention of pundits, scouts, and front offices alike, serving as the catalyst for his placement among the upper echelon of 2022 prospects.

Regardless of which team found itself in possession of the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, it was widely expected that Smith Jr. would be the top selection. Alas, draft day would prove to be a complete turning point, as standout Duke forward Paolo Banchero and Gonzaga big man Chet Holmgren were selected ahead of Smith Jr.

It was undoubtedly a shock for Smith Jr., who went from being a consensus top prospect in his class to the third overall pick. Nevertheless, Smith Jr. went on to have a solid rookie season in Houston, averaging nearly 13 points and just over seven rebounds, which earned him a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team.

In his sophomore campaign, Smith Jr. demonstrated tremendous promise with increased efficiency, particularly highlighted by his rising three-point field goal percentage of 36%. Unfortunately, at the start of the 2024-25 season, Jabari Smith Jr.'s game has faltered somewhat, as he seems to have regressed.

His efficiency has taken a significant hit, with his overall field goal percentage dropping to 38% and his three-point shooting percentage at a disappointing 25%. Be that as it may, Smith Jr. demonstrated a great deal of potential and upside in his first two seasons, and this drop-off could signal that he needs a change of scenery where his development can be maximized.

Look no further than the rebuilding Toronto Raptors.

Laying out the details of the trade

So what would a hypothetical trade package for Jabari Smith Jr. look like between Toronto and Houston? Here are the key puzzle pieces that might be involved:

Jabari Smith Jr. is the primary focus for the Raptors, but they also acquire two veteran players, Steven Adams and Jae'Sean Tate, who could carve out solid roles as they approach the end of their expiring contracts. They also align with the Raptors' identity, as Adams is a much-needed center with an abundance of hustle, while Tate is a solid 3-and-D wing.

Rewinding back to the crown jewel of the deal, Toronto takes a gamble on his fallen stock by trading for Smith Jr. and betting on his development as the ideal big man archetype to pair with Barnes, Quickley, and Dick.

Smith currently plays a significant portion of his minutes at the power forward position, but with his 6-foot-11 frame, he could certainly transition to a stretch five role with the right development program, which Toronto is renowned for.

The Raptors would need to enhance their offer by including a 2026 first-round pick from Indiana. Although it's protected from picks 1 to 4, it could fall anywhere between the mid to late lottery if the Pacers can't manage a successful campaign. Also included is the Raptors' own 2028 second-round draft pick to help entice the Rockets.

Should the Raptors make this trade?

Aside from parting ways with the Indiana first-round pick, which could be valuable in a strong draft class, Brown and Boucher are arguably at the top of Toronto's trade block anyway. Therefore, they don't lose much in terms of pure roster talent. Flipping those two for a former 3rd overall pick in Smith Jr. is almost a no-brainer, but Toronto really needs to trust their instincts regarding his development and fit with the Raptors' young core.

Houston would more than likely be on board with such a deal as they acquire championship experience in veteran guard Bruce Brown and sharpshooting forward Chris Boucher to help their playoff hopes.

Moving on from Smith Jr. allows them to transition Tari Eason to a full-time power forward, as he has shown himself to be a promising player in his own right. Brown can be trusted over rookie Reed Sheppard in a potential playoff push, while Boucher resembles a poor man's Smith Jr. with his reliable three-point shot.

It also provides them with some cap flexibility, as they no longer need to worry about extending Smith Jr. This allows them to shift their priorities toward acquiring another All-Star caliber player to join their roster, such as Brandon Ingram or Jimmy Butler.

Overall, it seems that both Toronto and Houston emerge as winners in a fairly even trade. There is tremendous value on both sides, and all that needs to happen is a phone call from Toronto's front office.

Grade: A