I don't think for one second that last year's Jakob Poeltl career resurgence was a fraud or fool's gold by any stretch. I was pleasantly surprised by Poeltl's impact for Toronto, and it's been clear based on the advanced analytics that when the big fella didn't suit up for the Raptors, the team would take a massive hit, and it revealed just how much of an impact Poeltl had as an on-court presence.
Well, here we are in what has been a rocky first week of NBA action for Toronto, and Jakob Poeltl has seemingly fallen off the wagon as an impactful pillar. This note from Raptors insider Josh Lewenberg on X paints a clear picture of that sudden decline:
Raptors are feeling the brunt of Jakob Poeltl's struggles
+/- is a noisy stat, but for an indication of how compromised Poeltl's been by the back injury to start the season:
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) October 29, 2025
Post all-star last year, Raps were +60 with Jak on the floor, -85 without him.
This year, they've been outscored in his mins in all 4 games, -28 with him overall.
The 30-year-old Poeltl has been dealing with a myriad of injuries, most visibly a nose break which he has been protecting with a face mask, and the aforementioned back injury as Josh Lewenberg highlighted in his X post. A bad back can hinder anyone — just look at how many older, regular folks deal with it on a daily basis. Now imagine how much more that would affect a professional athlete.
To some extent, a rational Raptors fan can discern that Jakob Poeltl hasn't been his usual self so far into the 2025-26 season, averaging just 6.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. The sad reality might be that Poeltl is being forced to play despite not being 100 percent and given the Raptors' lack of center depth. I remember vividly how Raptors assistant coach James Wade mentioned during the Raptors coaches open house from a few weeks ago: "Jakob Poeltl has to grab 10 rebounds for us to be successful."
And as I just highlighted, Poeltl has just not been able to even get anywhere close to that quota, after nearly averaging 10 rebounds last season (9.6 boards to be exact). A weakened health status remains a valid reason for concern, especially since Poeltl is not getting any younger and aging big men who suffer injuries can often signal a grim trajectory of continued decline. The Raptors also gave him a four-year, $104 million extension over the summer, which I noted in the immediate aftermath as a 'necessary evil' for Toronto.
Pivoting to a more critical look at Jakob Poeltl, the Raptors might need to address a clear pitfall: having a player who could just be too slow to provide essential rim protection, athleticism, and rebounding. In this small sample size so far, we've seen Toronto trying to enforce a pace and style that resembles the OKC Thunder, but perhaps Poeltl is just not the right fit to flourish in such a system. The team still looks fairly out of sync and is working through chemistry issues. While Poeltl is expected to elevate the team's defensive ceiling, they can't rely on him to be the sole catalyst for improvement when the entire team appears disorganized.
For now, Raptors Nation can only hope that Poeltl improves his health and returns to form, or else that costly extension might end up being Toronto shooting itself in the foot.