The Toronto Raptors exited the summer with an unbalanced roster. They loaded up on guards, building a collection of backcourt players that outnumbered the frontcourt players, including a cornucopia of shooting guards -- seven of their 18 rostered players would be best deployed at the 2.
That meant the competition to get minutes on the wing would be fierce, while a player like Jonathan Mogbo may get minutes from the jump merely because he was forward-sized. With RJ Barrett likely to start at the 3 and Gradey Dick and Bruce Brown at the top of the pecking order to start at the 2, most of the minutes were spoken for.
That meant a fringe rotation role at best for third-year wing Ochai Agbaji, or poentially even no role at all to begin the season. Agbaji had a truly awful run in Toronto after arriving at the Trade Deadline, averaging 6.7 points on just 39.1 percent shooting, and nothing outside of one good year in college suggests he can be an above-average shooter.
A shooting guard who can't shoot is not a prized commodity, and the door looked to be shut for Agbaji in Toronto -- in the rotation, in their future, and perhaps his future as an NBA player.
Now, however, the latest injury news means the door may have been cracked back open.
An opportunity arises
In direct contract to Agbaji, RJ Barrett has been killing it since arriving in Toronto. He averaged 21.8 points per game on 55.3 percent shooting, including 39.2 percent from deep, to go along with 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. It was perhaps the best 32-game stretch of his career. He then parlayed that into a strong summer for Team Canada at the Paris Olympics, and had a dominant preseason debut last week that suggested big things for Barrett this season.
Then Barrett slammed into a Jonas Valanciunas screen, injuring his shoulder and ending his preseason. He will be reevaluated in two weeks, which puts his ability to start in the season opener on the line.
Raptors open regular season vs. Philadelphia on Oct. 25th. Raptors last (of 5) exhibition games is Oct. 18th. His condition will be updated as of the 18th. If there is a two-week ramp up (after being out for two weeks), he would be doubtful for the regular season. https://t.co/RFrAJ1CXIy
— Michael Grange (@michaelgrange) October 8, 2024
Grange noted that the Raptors actually start their season on October 23rd, which only further highlights the point that Barrett is unlikely to be ready for Opening Night. The Raptors need another option to be ready to start.
Perhaps that player would be Bruce Brown, a proven veteran to help glue the starting lineup together, but he is currently sidelined after having knee surgery last month and is likely going to miss the start of the season himself.
Ja'Kobe Walter is a teenaged rookie and suffered the same exact shoulder injury as Barrett, and while he might be healthy by the 23rd he will have missed all of the preparation of training camp and is a longshot to be in the rotation, let alone start.
That leaves precious few options to step into both the starting lineup and the rotation. Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead both looked great in the preseason opener, but they are significantly undersized to play on the wing. Jonathan Mogbo is a direct backup at power forward and has essentially no outside jumper at this point.
Ochai Agbaji gets one more chance
That essentially leaves one player to step up into the rotation and probably the starting lineup itself, and that is Ochai Agbaji. The former Kansas swingman has had an inconsistent start to his career, caused in part by moving from team-to-team over the past two seasons, but he is the only player with the size and strength to capably defend wings on the perimeter.
To his credit, Agbaji has put in the work this summer, from asking to be on the Las Vegas Summer League team to improving his strength and conditioning. He was named as a standout from Training Camp last week, looking the part of a "polished prospect" as he "defended aggressively and made some smart cuts for baskets" per Sportsnet's Michael Grange.
Agbaji also played hard in the Raptors' preseason opener, a beatdown of the Washington Wizards in Montreal. The third-year player went 4-for-7 from the field in his 17 minutes and was a +16 for the game.
The shot remains the swing factor, however. Agbaji was 1-for-3 from deep against the Wizards, finally hitting an outside shot, but through Summer League and his 27 games in Toronto last season he has been atrocious from deep. If he cannot prove himself a much better shooter than his career 32.6 percent he won't have much of an NBA career. The clock is ticking.
The Raptors have until October 31st to pick up Agbaji's fourth-year team option for 2025-26, valued at $6.38 million. If they decline it, Agbaji will become an unrestricted free agent next summer, and the Raptors would be limited to a first-year starting salary of that $6.38 million number. If they pick it up, they are on the hook for that salary even if Toronto no longer wants him after this year.
Agbaji has a chance, therefore, to prove his worth and secure a payday for his fourth season. If he can step up in preseason and to start the regular season, the Raptors will almost certainly take a shot on him and pick up the option. If he squanders even this opportunity, specifically as a cold outside shooter, his career may be on the rocks.
No pressure.