The Raptors are still sitting in fifth place in the Eastern Conference despite a string of losses to OKC, San Antonio, New York, and Minnesota. But—and this is a big but—the gap between them and the teams right below them in the standings has gotten dangerously small.
After Saturday’s games, the Magic and Heat are now only one game behind the Raptors. The 76ers fell from sixth to eighth but are also only 1.5 games behind the Raptors. That creates a lot of room for movement between the two final outright playoff spots and the first two play-in teams.
With such a small gap, the Raptors’ margin of error is incredibly small. They are officially in danger of dropping into the play-in tournament.
The Magic, Heat, and 76ers aren’t the Raptors only competition
Right now, Miami, Orlando, and Philadelphia are in the best position to topple Toronto in the standings, but other teams could make the situation even more complicated.
The Hornets are 4-11 in their last 15 games, and Zach Lowe already dubbed Charlotte the fifth-best team in the Eastern Conference. Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball, and Kon Knueppel are leading an intriguing up-and-coming team that could quickly play its way out of the bottom half of the play-in tournament—and maybe out of it entirely.
The Hawks just got Trae Young back from a lengthy absence and are on a six-game win streak. Although five of those games were against teams outside of the playoff picture, Young’s return could change things for the Hawks, who currently sit in ninth place with a three-game gap between them and the Raptors.
Falling into the play-in tournament would be a massive disappointment
Between Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett, the Raptors have too much talent to fall into the play-in tournament. Fans are hungry for a playoff appearance and some postseason success. Falling out of the top six would threaten both.
Having to battle through the play-in tournament right before the playoffs start is a tiring affair, and a win is only rewarded with a matchup against one of the top two teams in the conference.
Right now, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference are the Pistons and the Celtics. The Raptors haven’t won a game against either yet. So, even if they made it out of the play-in tournament, falling that far would make it less likely that the Raptors will actually win in the playoffs. Staying locked into the 4-5 matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers is the option that promises the most first-round success.