Ochai Agbaji's efforts place him among a talented group of NBA peers, as Sam Vecenie highlights in his "Game Theory Offseason Preview" focusing on the Toronto Raptors.
If you followed my regular season content closely, you probably would've noticed that I was a huge fan of Ochai Agbaji's progression with the Toronto Raptors.
Here was a guy who epitomized the modern, prototypical wing, gamebred for the NBA level. Despite possessing all the talent in the world, his first couple of seasons seemed to steer Agbaji toward an early exit from the NBA — just as he was beginning his professional journey.
But you can't count out a young player so easily — Agbaji would elevate his game to another level in the 2024-25 season, cementing himself as one of the top 3-and-D wings in the league.
Likewise, for a period, he experienced one of the most significant statistical surges in NBA history, notably with a remarkable jump in his three-point percentage (21.7% with the Raps last year to a whopping 39.9% this year).
Ochai Agbaji's scoring metrics places him in strong NBA company
In fact, Vecenie would note the incredible company Agbaji was able to establish himself in after such a stellar campaign — especially as he pondered the impending extension that the ex-Kansas product is bound to warrant.
"If you just try and do a search for guys that are 6-foot-4 or taller, who have hit a certain number of threes and averaged a certain number like shot 50% from the field — Ochai [Agbaji] is actually in like a fairly limited group of players for the most part... Purely with the numbers, there are 16 players that within the first three seasons of their career, averaged at least 10 points, three rebounds, and shot 49% from the field, and 39% from three, while at least making one and a half threes a game — It's like [Karl-Anthony] Towns, Reggie Miller, [Nikola] Jokic, [James] Harden, Mikal Bridges, Drazen Petrovic, [Tyrese] Haliburton, Jalen Williams, Michael Porter Jr., Malcolm Brogdon, Herb Jones, Gary Harris, Miles Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nicolas Batum, Ochai [Agbaji]. "Sam Vecenie, June 9, 2025
I know that's quite a bit to take in, and sure, you could argue that some of those names are just role players. But it's hard to ignore the significance of two greats like Reggie Miller and Drazen Petrovic, alongside two NBA superstars—Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—battling it out in the Finals.
I don't mean to imply that Agbaji is necessarily destined to reach that level of superstardom; rather, this highlights the kind of classification he finds himself in after such a strong career development.
Vecenie would further note where Agbaji’s future contract prospects might be headed, based on this statistic:
"All of those guys who are modern-day players have made $100 million in their careers, right? Like, Gary Harris is probably the one who's most applicable there, to me, of that group. Gary Harris got a deal, in like 2018-19, that was basically $18 to $18.5 million a year. I think that number feels about right, somewhere between the $15 to $18 million mark for Ochai [Agbaji]. Like something above the mid-level feels right to me. "Sam Vecenie
Put simply, Ochai Agbaji is the real deal. But the big question is whether the Toronto Raptors can afford to pay him what he's worth. I'd love to see him stay, but that number might be too high for Toronto's growing salary sheets.