The Raptors aren’t going into their first-round matchup as the favorite to win the series. But at least they don’t have to play the Knicks and already have the confidence that they can compete with the Cavs after three regular-season wins—although the Cavs were a very different team early in the season. Several key players missed games against the Raptors, and the two teams haven’t faced off since James Harden arrived in Cleveland.
There is a path for the Raptors to steal Game 1 on the Cavaliers’ home court, though, as Brian Windhorst broke down on 5 Good Minutes with Windy on ESPNCleveland on Monday.
“Playing the noon game, one o’clock game against a team that plays a tempo that’s different from what you play when you haven’t played a competitive game—the Cavs didn’t play their last two games competitively, and then they have a week off—I’m just telling you right out of the gate, orange alert,” Windhorst said.
He also added that the Cavaliers couldn’t afford to fall behind in the first few minutes of the game and noted, “If they screw up a quarter in Game 1, it could end up biting them.”
The Raptors had to stay competitive and focused until the very end of the regular season, and their ability to force turnovers and push the pace could help them catch the Cavaliers off guard early in the game.
The Raptors cannot let the Cavs dictate the pace
The Cavs finished the regular season with the sixth-best offensive rating in the league and they have a great half-court offense. The Raptors, meanwhile, have a middle-of-the-pack offense. But they did lead the league in fastbreak points and finished fourth in opponent turnover percentage and points off turnovers.
If the Raptors allow the Cavaliers to dictate the pace and this becomes a series that’s decided in the halfcourt, they will probably lose. The Cavs have better creators in the halfcourt, better 3-point shooters, and were a better rebounding team on both ends of the floor in the regular season.
If the Raptors speed up the game, force some turnovers, and can get out and run, they have a chance to make the Cavs uncomfortable. The Raptors score well in transition, and the Cavaliers haven’t been great defensively in transition this season. So that will be the key to the Raptors’ success in this series—alongside big scoring performances from their stars, of course—especially in Game 1 when they can still catch the Cavs hopefully somewhat unprepared.
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