The Raptors have some great scorers, but, as a team, defense is their bigger strength. They rank seventh in defensive rating across the league and fifth among Eastern Conference Teams. Their offensive rating is only fifteenth in the league.
But that defense hasn’t been tested in the playoffs yet, when every loss, every possession, every mistake could mean the end of your season, and opponents have ample time to learn your habits and figure out how to expose any weakness, no matter how small.
Moreover, the Raptors will have to face a top-ten offensive team in the first round. Any of the possible matchups—but especially any matchup that’s not the Cleveland Cavaliers—will tell the Raptors something about how sustainable their defense is at the highest level.
The Raptors’ first-round matchup will be tough
Despite some hiccups, the Raptors have been able to hold on to the five-seed. So, if the playoffs started today, they would have to face the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs rank sixth in offensive rating for the season, but that didn’t stop the Raptors from sweeping the season series 3-0.
If there is any movement either in the Raptors’ half of the playoff standings or in the top half, they might end up facing the Celtics, Knicks, or Pistons. The first two are some of the best offensive teams in the league and handed the Raptors a bunch of bad losses. The Pistons’ postseason potential depends on how quickly Cade Cunningham recovers from his collapsed lung. Without him, their scoring and playmaking will take a brutal hit.
Facing a strong offensive team in a playoff series will challenge the Raptors’ defense more than anything they encountered all season long. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It will help the organization evaluate how legitimate their regular-season success is and what their next steps should be.
It will also be a great test for Scottie Barnes. He anchors the Raptors’ defense with his versatility and athleticism. Barnes has firmly planted himself in the All-Defensive conversation. He can guard any position and any star and leads the league in clutch blocks. There’s little reason to doubt that his defensive talent will translate well to the playoffs, but it will still be great to see it in action with this core.
Barnes played in the playoffs before, but in 2022, he was surrounded by OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam. He didn’t have to carry the same weight on either end of the floor.