The middle of the East is soft
Last season, the Golden State Warriors won 46 games with a +2.6 net rating and were down in 10th place in the Western Conference. Even with Scottie Barnes taking a leap and the Raptors' best lineups being ready to shine, they likely aren't getting to 46 games next season.
The bar to clear in the Eastern Conference, however, is much lower. The Atlanta Hawks won only 36 games last year to secure the 10th seed, with a net rating of -2.2. That seems painfully unworthy of a postseason berth, and the Hawks were subsequently knocked out in the Play-In Tournament, but it's also a very attainable level to reach.
What's more, the middle of the East only got weaker this season. The Chicago Bulls lost Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan and replaced them with younger, worse players. The Miami Heat continue to hemmorage role players without replacing them at all. The Atlanta Hawks traded Dejounte Murray and the Brooklyn Nets traded away Mikal Bridges.
The Top 7 teams in the East seem fairly well set - in some order, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana and Orlando - but there is space after them for the Raptors to step into a Play-In berth and from there have a strong shot at making the playoffs.
Scottie Barnes is a rising star, and if Immaneul Quickley can take a step forward, the Raptors have the foundation to win more games than expected, and if things breka right, can absolutely find themselves in the playoffs at the end of the year.