Predicting when every member of Raptors' starting 5 might leave
Power Forward: Scottie Barnes
Just as Immanuel Quickley will hit restricted free agency this summer after his fourth season, Scottie Barnes is currently on track to become a free agent next summer. The massive difference, however, is that the Raptors are going to hand Barnes a maximum rookie extension as early as they possibly can, locking him up for another five seasons past next year.
The Raptors have committed to Barnes as the centerpiece of their team moving forward, the player around whom they will build the rest of the roster. He took a massive step forward this past year; that doesn't guarantee future stardom, but he was an All-Star in his third season and boasts a two-way skillset that is truly unique.
If Barnes continues to grow into a superstar, All-NBA player, the decision on when to leave will be his own. The Raptors will do everything they can to retain him, including offering him maximum contract extensions as they are allowed to, and if Barnes enjoys Toronto and thinks he can win with the team the front office has put around him, he will be with the Raptors for a very long time. It's less common, but some stars do stay with the team that drafted them for their entire careers.
If Barnes doesn't take that next step, however, his future could look more like Brandon Ingram in New Orleans, who made an All-Star team but then became the No. 2 alongside Zion Williamson. Either via trade or luck in the draft lottery the Raptors could add another player who becomes the franchise star. As they orient to building around that player, the fit with Barnes or a lack of playoff success would put Barnes on the chopping block.
That's a wide range of outcomes, but right now Barnes looks like a player who Toronto will want to continue building around. Let's assume that he stays with the Raptors and signs a supermax contract, but this team never quite breaks through to win a title and Toronto eventually moves off of him to fully commit to a rebuild in 2032, when Barnes will be 30 years old and fully in his prime.
Prediction: 2032 Trade Deadline