Predicting when every member of Raptors' starting 5 might leave

Center: Jakob Poeltl

RJ Barrett has the widest range of outcomes that could feasibly occur, and Scottie Barnes has the haziest unknown because his departure would almost certainly be far off. The player who is the most difficult to predict, however, is Jakob Poeltl, because when he should leave the Raptors and when he will are likely two different answers.

This front office drafted Jakob Poeltl with a Top-10 draft pick, and they then traded a first-round pick (eventually the No. 8 pick) to trade for him; twice they used significant assets to add Poeltl to the roster. When he joined the team after the 2023 Trade Deadline he made an immediate impact on the Raptors' success, and their defense when he is off the court suffers significantly.

Poeltl is also 28 years old, doesn't offer even a hint of floor-spacing or shot creation and isn't a playmaking hub or post maven. In fact, his finishing in traffic near the rim is abysmal for a player of his size. He can crush lobs and finish with a clean lane, but his value is essentially as a good rebounder and really good rim protector. That's a valuable player, but it's a ceiling-limiting one.

If the Raptors want to merely be competitive next season, keeping Poeltl makes the most sense. If they want to put together the best team in the long-run, however, they need to trade Poeltl. They could do so immediately and trade into the NBA Draft, like in this trade proposal, or they could do so in July once free agency begins. There are teams looking for rim protectors who would make competitive offers.

That's almost certainly not what the front office will do, however, They love Poeltl and the numbers are there to support that love. He will stay on the team longer than he should; the prediction here is another two full seasons.

Prediction: Summer of 2026