No. 5: Bruce Brown is on a flexible contract
Evaluating the Bruce Brown contract is a difficult proposition.
Brown was long beloved by certain segments of the analytical community but undervalued by NBA teams until he signed with the Denver Nuggets two seasons ago. He proceeded to be a crucial part of their run to the title, leading to a two-year, $45 million contract with the Indiana Pacers.
The rub with his deal is that it came with a $23 million team option for 2024-25, which brings the Toronto Raptors to a difficult point of decision. Brown was undeniably disappointing in Indiana, likely why they were so comfortable including him in the trade for Pascal Siakam. Upon arriving in Toronto, Brown was downright bad.
He is not worth $23 million for next season, and certainly not to the retooling Toronto Raptors. The question becomes whether a contending team would be willing to trade the Raptors something of value for Brown, or if they should decline his team option and let him walk.
If Brown were evaluated solely as a one-year, $23 million contract, he lands about here. That's certainly an overpay, but Brown could reasonably bounce back and provide something around $15 million in value. He could also flounder in Toronto or elsewhere and make this a massive overpay. Even so, it's only one more year, so the downside risk is limited.