No. 4: Kelly Olynyk is on a risky contract
The Toronto Raptors may look on the outside like a team that committed to rebuilding this season, but the truth is a lot more nuanced than that. They did not trade Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for packages of purely draft picks and expiring salary, but instead targeted young, established players and veteran salaries they could flip.
Then came the most curious decision, trading a 2024 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz for Ochai Agbaji and Kelly Olynyk. Not wasting any time, the Raptors then agreed to a two-year contract extension that will keep the Canadian big man under terms through 2025-26.
Olynyk was having a career year despite being 32 years old (he celebrated his 33rd birthday this week) and the Jazz capitalized by trading him, but it is certainly strange that the Raptors were the team to outbid contenders and even playoff-level teams. The theory is likely that Olynyk's floor-spacing is a great fit with Scottie Barnes and will help a young team develop on a spaced court.
Things didn't go very well to start Olynyk's tenure in Toronto, although he had very little opportunity to play with the entire healthy core of next year's team. If he can shoot the ball well, his passing and reobunding will translate and help the offense significantly. If his shot stays below average (33.8 percent in Toronto) his lack of rim protection will hurt the defense more than he helps the offense.
The Raptors likely could have signed Olynyk to a lower number after the season given how poorly he finished the year, but the deal averages just $12.4 million so there is not a large amount of downside. If Olynyk falls off or the Raptors spend the next two seasons deep in the lottery the contract will be a negative one, but it could also work out if he plays well and helps the young core develop.