The Toronto Raptors do not have a balanced roster.
Out of 18 players under contract for next season, the Raptors have exactly 0 small forwards. They have two power forwards in Scottie Barnes and rookie Jonathan Mogbo, six bigs, and a trio of point guards.
That leaves a whopping seven players who are naturally shooting guards, including Top 20 picks from each of the past three seasons. How will the coaching staff sort through who deserves to play, and in what combinations?
Part of that challenge is simply ranking each player against one another. Who is the best combination of talent, production and skillset? Let's go through all seven and see who deserves playing time and who is playing so poorly they should be ejected from the rotation entirely.
No. 7: Ochai Agbaji
Ochai Agbaji was a lottery pick out of Kansas as recently as two years ago, but his career has failed to get off of the launching pad and he is in very real danger of having his fourth-year team option declined by the Raptors.
After making a huge leap in shooting accuracy as a senior, Agbaji fell back to earth once he entered the NBA, shooting just 35.5 percent as a rookie in Utah and a frigid 29.4 percent from deep last season, including just 21.7 percent once arriving in Toronto. He's a below-average defender, an inaccurate shooter (his free-throw percentage was just 66.1 percent last year as well) and doesn't offer much in terms of shot creation.
There is still hope for Agbaji to reclaim his career, but he doesn't deserve a single minute of playing time right now unless he shows a real step forward in training camp, the preseason and with the 905 in the G League.
No. 6: Garrett Temple
Garrett Temple is the sixth-oldest player in the NBA, and he certainly wasn't signed to play an outsized role in the rotation. In fact, it's very possible he won't see more than a handful of minutes this season.
Temple can still shoot the basketball and make savvy veteran plays; he knows where to be and what to do when he gets there. He has played 14 years in the NBA after going undrafted 15 years ago, playing for 12 NBA teams, but never starting more than 55 games in a year. It''s somewhat remarkable the length of his NBA career given his "peak" was as a low-end starter.
The Raptors pressed Temple into duty last year in the midst of their injury woes, even starting him for a pair of games late in the year. He's more of a willing shooter than an ace, however, so there isn't one specific skill keeping him in the league or that could earn him minutes in the rotation.
Temple was brought back to the Raptors to be something of a veteran mentor to the team, and on a relatively young roster he'll be the experienced voice in the room. For Temple that role was well worth another NBA contract, and for Toronto it was worth the roster spot. It won't mean many minutes for him.
No. 5: D.J. Carton
While the Raptors have invested a pair of premium first-round picks on shooting guards over the past two seasons, they have also managed to unearth an undrafted guard out of Ohio State and Marquette who has shown flashes in his limited minutes and could fight for a spot in the pecking order.
D.J. Carton is a powerful guard who is relentless in attacking the rim, and his confidence with the ball and as a finisher serves him well and introduces a different element to the Raptors' offense. He is also an excellent defender, comfortable getting physical with opposing guards and even bodying up larger wings when needed despite his 6'2" height.
The issue for Carton is his shooting. He was not much of a shooter in college and that has carried over to his professional career. In three seasons in the G League he has consistently been a below-average shooter; the exception came in 15 games for the Iowa Wolves last year, when he shot 43.4 percent and earned a deal with the Raptors.
Carton can play a defensive role for the Raptors if called upon, but he will need to continue growing as a shooter to earn a rotation spot with them or another team. Given that he is just 6'2" he needs to bring a lot to the table to earn minutes, especially given the investment in Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead who can play that defensive role.
No. 4: Ja'Kobe Walter
The Toronto Raptors used the No. 19 pick in this year's draft on Baylor wing Ja'Kobe Walter, a former top prospect who was caught between the role he wants and the role he is best for at Baylor. If you examine his freshman tape from the right angle, and exciting prospect emerges.
Walter wants to be the on-ball star most players dream about, and it's not entirely out of the question that he could become at least a part-time on-ball scorer and playmaker. It's far more likely that future is not in the cards, and if so, his willingness to buy into a supporting role may determine the length of his NBA career.
An above-average athlete, Walter has all of the tools to be an elite defender on the wing, with a long wingspan and solid movement skills. He is also a smooth spot-up shooter, marking the outline of a future 3-and-D stud.
Do the Raptors give him room to explore the studio space? Does he suit up for the 905 and run the show to see how his on-ball game is developing? Or do they lock him into his role from day one and groom him as the long-term starting 2 as a 3-and-D complement to Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes?
No. 3: Bruce Brown
The most difficult spot on this ranking was between No. 2 and No. 3, between the proven veteran and the rising youngster. Bruce Brown was part of the closing lineup on a title-winner just over 12 months ago, while Gradey Dick has played less than 1,300 minutes and proven a whole lot of nothing.
Ultimately, however, the flashes Gradey Dick showed in Summer League bumped him above Brown, as he looks ready to take a step up to the next level, whereas Brown had a relatively poor run of play with the Raptors last season and needs to prove that (1) he hasn't lost a step, and (2) he can find a way to thrive alongside the other key players on this team.
It's been well-documented how Brown struggled in Toronto last year, appearing in 34 games but shooting just 31.7 percent from deep and averaging 1.3 turnovers to 2.7 assists as a nominal playmaker. His Box Plus-Minus, admittedly on a terrible team, was by far the worst of his career. Most lineups he was in were worse than if he were replaced by another player.
Brown has proven himself a good defender, playmaker and cutter, and his shooting has waxed and waned. As the team tries to find a trade partner interested in him, the better he can play the more likely it is he is traded to a team with real aspirations, and the better his chance of earning another significant contract beyond this year.
No. 2: Gradey Dick
Gradey Dick was the 13th pick of the 2023 NBA Draft and was slow to get off the ground last season. One of the best shooters in college basketball and among his draft class, the shot wobbled a bit as he got his NBA sea legs underneath him.
That changed as the season went on, and by the end of the year Gradey Dick was a confident part of a rotation that desperately needed healthy bodies and was struggling to space the court. That run of play may have set him up to earn the fifth and final starting slot this upcoming season.
The appeal of drafting Gradey Dick over Jordan Hawkins, who went one pick later with a similar reputation as a pure shooter, is that Dick's size and ability to attack closeouts made him a more versatile player. He should be a competent, if never elite, defender, and his ability to attack the rim and rebound the ball could make him the multi-faceted wing this team could really use.
The most important skill is the shot, however, and if Gradey Dick can become a player who consistently shoots above 40 percent from deep, he will unlock an element to the Raptors' offense and earn himself a large role moving forward.
No. 1: RJ Barrett
RJ Barrett is in the midst of the best stretch of his career, from a dominant run upon joining the Raptors to a strong showing for Team Canada at the Paris Olympics. The question that is likely dogging the Raptors is whether this is a hot streak or part of a leveling up to a new class of player.
Barrett was the No. 1 player in his high school recruiting class and had an extremely strong year at Duke playing alongside Zion Williamson. In 4.5 seasons with the New York Knicks, however, he could never put everything together. One season his shot would fall but his drive game struggled; the next the defense would lock in but the shot went cold. He couldn't realize the promise of his draft pedigree.
If that's changing, Barrett is suddenly not simply a supplemental part of this team's starting lineup, he's a part of their core. A Barrett who is confident on the ball, a capable shooter, a relentless rebounder and a locked-in defender is incredibly valuable. He is a bit undersized at 6'6" for playing small forward in every matchup, but his strength and 6'10" wingspan help him survive out of position.
If Barrett's last 8 months were just a hot streak, however, and he falls back to earth, his contract becomes more of a burden to the Raptors' books moving forward and the possibility of a trade opens up. Getting a small forward with more size and pure shooting ability could fit the roster better. That's not the outcome anyone wants for the Toronto native, but it's a possibility.
For now, Barrett will start at small forward and get a chance to prove that his dominant run of play to start 2024 was not a mirage. He is clearly the best shooting guard on the team no matter what position he is playing, and he'll get to prove it this year.