Raptors picked as the one NBA team likely to accomplish rare feat this season

The Toronto Raptors will be a better team next season.

Almost every fan base is going to say the same thing about their team (pour one out for Brooklyn Nets fans) because every season blooms new optimism. The reality is that roughly half of the league's teams will be better and roughly half will be worse. But the Raptors should feel good about being in that first category.

Last season they moved off of nearly the entire rotation; of the nine players who received substantial minutes the first week of last season, only two remain with the team now, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Dennis Schroder, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Malachi Flynn, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, Otto Porter Jr., Thaddeus Young and Jontay Porter, all gone.

The new group brought in to replace them was unable to get any sense of momentum or continuity down the stretch of last season as injuries ravaged the rotation, and most significantly the Raptors played the last quarter of the season without both Barnes and Poeltl.

When you add in the youth of this team's core, all of whom are likely to improve this season, you get the recipe for a team ready to take a step forward. How big of a step? That depends on who you ask, but one NBA podcast recently submitted a major vote of confidence in Toronto taking not just a step but a leap up in the win column.

The Raptors can take a massive leap forward

The "Slam and Jam" podcast is one of the best NBA podcasts out there, a part of The Athletic NBA Show, and hosts Andrew Schlecht and Alex Speers make one of the best duos in the business. Prior to every season, they award one team the prestigious "Surprise Team" award as the club that looks most poised to exceed preseason expectations.

The idea is that, on average, one team every season is expected to be out of the playoff picture but exceeds its win projection by at least 10 wins; some years two teams do it, some teams no teams accomplish the feat, but on average one team accomplishes that each year. For example, if the Charlotte Hornets have an over/under of 32.5 prior to the season but win 43 games, they would qualify as the "Surprise Team" for the season.

Heading into this season, the two hosts examined a number of teams who are poised to take a step forward. In most cases, however, a team's upside is already baked into their win total. For example, the San Antonio Spurs will almost certainly take a big step forward this season as Victor Wembanyama comes into his own and veterans like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes raise the team's floor; their win total is a whopping 35.5 wins, 13.5 more than they won last season. The room to clear that number is limited.

Schlecht and Speers correctly identified that for one team that step forward has not been predicted by Vegas, and that's the Toronto Raptors. Despite all of the reasons to expect them to take a major step forward, from youth to health to gaining chemistry, the Raptors have an over/under of 29.5 or 30.5 wins depending on where you look. That's only a modest gain of 4-5 wins from their 25-52 finish last season.

There are a lot of ways that the Raptors could clear that 30.5 number, and they look like one of the best bets on the board because of it. Yet the Slam and Jam pick was not that they would clear 30.5; it's that they have the best bet of any lottery team of clearing it by at least 10 wins.

Could the Raptors really win 41 games? It's not as far-fetched as it may seem, especially if Scottie Barnes takes another step forward. An improved Barnes, an improved Quickley and an improved Gradey Dick, combined with an infusion of young talent to fill out the bench, could absolutely put together a .500 win team.

It's not the most likely outcome, but it's certainly in the cards, which is an encouraging sign for the Raptors and their fans. The "Slam and Jam" Surprise Team seal of approval is not worth anything, but it's another vote of confidence in a Raptors team ready to take a step forward.