Raptors' Scottie Barnes snubbed from 2028 Olympic roster in new projection

The Toronto Raptors had a pair of Olympians this year for the Paris Summer Olympics, and while RJ Barrett had a strong showing he and Kelly Olynyk were eliminated in the quarterfinals when Team Canada fell to host France.

The Raptors had no other players involved in the Olympics, but they certainly could in four years. Scottie Barnes is a rising star for the Raptors, and he will be 26 and in the prime of his career when the 2028 Summer Olympics kick off in Los Angeles. Will Barnes be representing Team USA in front of the hometown fans?

According to one projection, Barnes will be sitting at home and watching on Peacock like everyone else.

Scottie Barnes left off the roster

ESPN's Kevin Pelton is one of the most well-respected basketball writers in the business, and his approach marrying analytics and basketball knowledge to every layer of basketball is a credit to his craft. He was a logical person for the worldwide leader to pick to predict who will be on the Olympic roster in four years.

Pelton began by deciding which players on the current team were unlikely to return in four years, including the all-timers leading the Paris team in LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. With Jrue Holiday and Derrick White also projected not to return, that left only five slots for other Americans to fill into.

Pelton mostly leaned into former Team USA participants to fill those spots, picking Jalen Brunson and Paolo Banchero off the 2023 World Cup Team in addition to Chet Holmgren, a mainstay at the younger levels. Jalen Williams and Tyrese Maxey filled out the roster.

Missing from the list? Scottie Barnes, who Pelton described as "my toughest cut" when discussing those left off the roster.

Should Scottie Barnes make the 2028 Olympic roster?

Pelton's primary reason for leaving Barnes off the roster was twofold: that Barnes is not as clean of a fit as Jalen Williams, who is a better off-ball shooter, and that Paolo Banchero is too duplicative of Barnes' skillset and is ahead in line because of his place on the 2023 World Cup roster.

Both are fair points to make, and for better or worse, Banchero's experience in the program will give him a leg up. The difficulty of building the best roster for Team USA is balancing talent with roster construction. Ideally, Team USA would have star players who fit every role, but the "best" players available are often those used to being on-ball shot creators and playmakers. Not everyone on a team can have the ball. It's a problem building super teams, and Team USA is the superest super team of them all.

With that being said, Barnes brings something to the table that Banchero does not, and that is his incredible defense. He can be everywhere defensively, and his weakside shot-blocking could be an excellent complement to whoever is playing at center for Team USA. He is also better able to play smallball center than Banchero for just that reason. Compared to Jalen Williams he has significantly more size and strength; if USA needs a bigger body, Barnes is an obvious pick.

The other factor to consider is that Pelton predicted both Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid to return; Davis will be 35 and Embiid 34, so the odds of both being healthy and still able to play at a high level are somewhat low. That immediately opens up a spot in the frontcourt rotation, and Barnes is likely a better option than Dereck Lively II or Evan Mobley.

Will Barnes make the team? It's likely somewhere around 50/50 at this point, depending in large part how he develops over the next few seasons. Should he? That's probably a higher number.

Will any other Raptors play in the 2028 Olympics?

RJ Barrett and Canada will almost certainly be back for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, as the team has reached a level of quality where it's unlikely they would not qualify given the talent on the roster and in the pipeline. Kelly Olynyk, however, will be 36 and a longshot to compete.

The only other player on the roster who has a chance to be in Los Angeles is Ulrich Chomche. Cameroon has a decent chance to be the best team from Africa at the 2027 World Cup and Chomche could be in their center rotation if they make it and he continues to develop.