The Toronto Raptors should pull the plug sooner than you think

There are plenty of reasons for optimism in Toronto this year.

The Raptors can hardly be worse than they were last season, when injuries ravaged a roster that was turned over completely during the season. Scottie Barnes missed the last quarter of his breakout season, with Jakob Poeltl joining him on the shelf. Even newcomers RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley missed time.

The underlying metrics suggest the Raptors will be better this year, potentially much better than their 25-57 record from the season before. It also appears that the Raptors are planning to try and win games this season, not moving off of their veterans this summer and even retaining Bruce Brown Jr. into the start of the season.

With that being said, there are some compelling reasons why the Toronto Raptors may want to pull the plug on this season, and it's a lot earlier than you would think.

What if Toronto gets off to a slow start?

It's common to speak of an NBA team "pulling the plug" toward the end of a season. If you are well out of the playoff race and want to maximize your position for the draft lottery, you begin resting your veterans and giving heavy minutes to your young and fringe players. The Raptors unofficially did this last season once things had completely fallen apart.

What if the Raptors didn't wait until late in the season to consider pulling the plug? If they get off to a slow start, what if they decide to move into a plan for the year that doesn't involve pushing for the playoffs -- and make that decision in December, not March?

On the one hand, that seems like a crazy proposition. The Raptors have a young All-Star in Scottie Barnes, a pair of gifted offensive counterparts in Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, and a veteran center in Jakob Poeltl. That group is good enough to win a lot of games, and could conceivably make a run at the Play-In Tournament this season.

It's unthinkable to pull the plug on the entire season just two months in, right? Perhaps. If the Raptors want to maximize winning in the short-term, this team is good enough to win some games. But if the Raptors try to take the long view, there are a lot of reasons not to stretch mediocrity out too long.

Why the Raptors should pull the plug

The 2025 NBA Draft looks to be a loaded one. After a disappointing lack of star-level talent at the top of the 2024 Draft, next year's group of plays appears to be positively loaded. At least five and as many as eight players in next year's draft class look like they would have gone No. 1 this year. Cooper Flagg looks like the king of the mountain, but other names like Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Nolan Traore and Rocco Zikarsky are elite prospects.

The Raptors could use another player to add to their core, and they won't be finding a star via free agency given their salary sheets moving forward -- not that stars come to Toronto in free agency anyway. Even in a best-case scenario outcome for both Barnes and Quickley's developments, the Raptors need another two-way star.

There will be plenty of competition for a prime spot in the lottery, however; winning games off and on all season will likely float the Raptors too high to have much of a shot at a top prospect. A year after losing the No. 8 pick due to the Jakob Poeltl, it would mean a lot to land a solid pick in 2025. To do so, they'll need to beat out a number of other rebuilding teams, including a large group in the Eastern Conference. The Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls all have a case to be quite bad next season.

Another reason the Raptors should move early is it pays to be the first team selling veterans to contending teams. They can play on the uncertainty of whether other players will come available and ensure the landing spots don't disappear before they can move off of Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk or even Jakob Poeltl.

Finally, the Raptors have an exceptionally easy close to their season. That is not unknown to the organization. If they hang on for too long, the allure of a hot run to close the season and a postseason berth may convince the team to push hard for a goal they don't necessarily care about, instead of the smarter long-term play being patient and building the best team for the future. They need to be well out of it before the ending stretch comes into play.

This is just one potential angle for approaching the season. There are positives to staying competitive, and perhaps this team gets off to a strong start and proves themselves too good to wait another year. If the Raptors look well behind early, however, being the first team to pull the plug could result in a future team ready to win big.