The Toronto Raptors have a decision to make.
Where some teams have a series of unknowns as they look at their starting lineup -- a generally dangerous position to be in -- the Toronto Raptors have most of their group locked in. It would be truly surprising if Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl do not start. That's 80 percent of the starting lineup already set before Training Camp begins.
The fifth and final spot is more up-for-grabs and how players perform in camp and the preseason could sway the decision. Most of the chatter around who could start seems to revolve around two different players in competition at shooting guard, second-year wing Gradey Dick and veteran Bruce Brown Jr.
On the one hand, Gradey Dick represents the future, and his shooting ability and burgeoning creation skills would be an offensive boost to the Raptors. Giving him more reps with the other stars would seem to be a beneficial move for Toronto's long-term development.
Brown, on the other hand, is a more proven contributor and a better defender than Dick. He had a poor run with the Raptors last season, but that could be said for most of the roster as injuries and turnover created a perfect storm. Starting Brown also better showcases him for the eventual trade that almost has to be coming during the season.
Reasonable cases can be made for either player. The problem is that some of the discussion has identified a third player in the mix, and that path needs to remain the road not taken.
The player? Kelly Olynyk.
The Raptors cannot start Kelly Olynyk
The theory behind starting Kelly Olynyk is that he is the best pure shooter on the roster, so if the Raptors need shooting they should try and get Olynyk on the court. RJ Barrett's most natural position is probably shooting guard anyway, so sliding him to the 2 and Scottie Barnes to the 3 would allow Olynyk to start at power forward.
This is a terrible plan. First, Olynyk's excellent shooting ability becomes less valuable if he is playing power forward instead of center. Is he merely spotting up in the corner? Is he running pick-and-pop actions with Immanuel Quickley, with Barnes and Jakob Poeltl trying desperately not to clog the paint? While he may win a shooting contest over Gradey Dick or Bruce Brown, his shooting functionally isn't as big of a weapon when deployed at the 4.
What's more, the group of starters would be significantly worse on defense. Olynyk is a terrible defender to start, but now Barnes is forced to defend on the perimeter full-time instead of being able to flex his muscles as a weakside shot-blocker and backline rotating defender. He is a decent wing defender; he is a special weakside rim-protector.
This move also doesn't make sense for the Raptors' roster construction. They are flush with shooting guards able to step in at the 2, but they have a paucity of forwards and reliable backup big men. Playing Barnes and Olynyk big minutes at the 3 and 4 means there are no players behind them to fill in, and Jakob Poeltl likewise doesn't have someone to play behind him.
Sprinkle in Olynyk's age and the likelihood he would get injured playing starter minutes and you have a truly disastrous idea to start him at power forward. Perhaps his name is being brought up simply for the sake of argument, but it's clear he should be well down the pecking order of who should start. He is best deployed as the backup center alongside Scottie Barnes in bench-heavy units, and perhaps in small doses as the backup 4 behind Barnes.
The answer to the question of who will start is perhaps not yet answered, but we know one answer it cannot be.