The Raptors are locked into a tight playoff race with the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat. Orlando held on to fifth place in the Eastern Conference despite a loss to the Hawks, but the Raptors have the same record at 38-29. Miami is just 0.5 games behind Orlando and Toronto with a 38-30 record. The Hawks and 76ers are also just 1.5 games behind the Raptors.
The fifth or sixth seed is in no way secure yet, but the Raptors have one major advantage: their remaining schedule is much easier than what the Magic and Heat still have to face to close out the regular season.
The remaining schedule could work in the Raptors’ favor
The Raptors have 15 games left in the season. Three games that they certainly have circled are matchups against the Magic and Heat that will decide the season series against both teams. The Raptors also still have three games left against a top-four opponent—the Pistons, Celtics, and Knicks.
Three of the Raptors’ remaining nine games after taking out the matchups against the Magic, Heat, and top-four opponents are against Western Conference playoff and play-in teams in the Nuggets, Suns, and Clippers. The other six games are all against teams outside of the top ten in either conference.
The Magic and Heat don’t have nearly as many games against tanking teams left.
Orlando still has to face five top-four opponents from either conference and five other playoff or play-in teams. Only four of their remaining games are against teams outside of the top ten.
The Heat have it even worse. Their schedule still features six games against a top-four opponent, including a gruelling stretch of five consecutive games against the Lakers, Rockets, Spurs, and Cavs. They also have four more games against lower-seeded playoff teams or play-in teams. Only three of their remaining games are against some of the worst teams in the league.
Playing their way back into fifth place would be ideal for the Raptors
If the playoffs started today, the Raptors would have to face the Knicks. That hasn’t been a good matchup this season. The Raptors lost four straight games to the Knicks, including a 27-point beatdown in late January.
If the Raptors fell into the play-in tournament and made their way out as either the seventh or eighth seed, they would have to face Detroit or Boston. They just beat the Pistons in a 119-108 statement win, but that doesn’t mean that they can win a seven-game series without home court advantage against them. The Celtics are also a bad matchup, as evidenced by the Raptors’ three losses this season.
The most favorable matchup would be the Cavaliers. The Raptors beat them three times this season—although rarely at full strength and never with James Harden in the lineup. To get that matchup, the Raptors would have to play their way back into fifth place and hope that the Cavs stay in fourth or stay in sixth place and hope that the Cavs can overtake the Knicks in the standings. Given that the gap between the Knicks and Cavs is much bigger than that between the Magic and Raptors, the former seems more likely.