The Toronto Raptors reached an important date on Wednesday, which just so happened to be the 6-month anniversary of Jakob Poeltl signing a new contract extension with the franchise. Now they are free to trade away their greatest mistake -- if anyone is willing to take him.
The glass half-full version of the Jakob Poeltl story is likely the one that the front office would share. They traded for a solid starting center who has been incredibly valuable to their team over the last four seasons. In 2023-24, the Raptors were 7.1 points per 100 possessions better with Poeltl on the court (per databallr.com). In 2024-25, the Raps were 6.9 points better, leading to his extension offer last summer. Instead of approaching unrestricted free agency this summer when he could walk away for nothing, he is under contract for another four seasons.
If that glass is half full, it's not filled with Tim Horton's coffee or anything else worth drinking. The Raptors have been better with Poeltl than without over the last few seasons, but that is because their other options have been so bad; they have not been good with him manning the center position. This season, indeed, that dynamic has flipped, and the Raptors are 4.4 points worse when he is in the game.
The original sin was trading the farm for Poeltl in the first place, trying to bolster a mediocre team by trading away a future Top-10 pick. Once Poeltl was on board, they responded with an immediate extension that paid him solid starting center money for the time, a four-year, $78 million pact that paid him an average of $19.5 million per season.
Fine, not great but not crippling. He performed well enough during that contract leading into this season, a serviceable low-end starting center. What he provided in terms of rebounding and rim protection and he gave up in terms of offensive impact and defensive versatility. If the Raptors wanted to move on, however, they would likely have the flexibility to do so as he approached the end of the deal.
The Raptors made a horrifying mistake
What Toronto did this past summer was downright horrifying. They looked at Poeltl and concluded that they couldn't risk him hitting free agency, instead locking him up on a deal that paid him an average of $28 million over the three new years, $84 million in total. The final year is only partially guaranteed, but could lock in if he stays healthy over the next few seasons.
That is a big if, however, because Poeltl's body is already breaking down. He has played just 21 of the Raptors' 37 games this season after playing just 57 and 50 the last two seasons, respectively. The history of big men developing a chronic injury -- in Poeltl's case, his back -- and then miraculously recovering into their 30s is slim indeed.
That's where Poeltl is at in his career; he is 30 years old, not 24, so the room for him to further grow as a player or establish a new level of health is long gone. He is under contract all the way through his age-34 season; he may not even be an NBA player at that point, let alone a starting-level center. It's difficult to make a case for him as a Top-25 center right now, and he will only get worse.
That brings things full-circle to January 7th, when Jakob Poeltl became trade eligible. As rumors swirl around the Raptors and their interest in various players on the trade market, Poeltl is a natural player to slot into a deal. The problem is his contract, an onerous weight that doesn't kick in for two years and is an anchor on his trade value.
If Toronto wants to trade for a player on a large salary, they either have to keep Poeltl and trade other rotation players that are more valuable, or they have to attach assets to Poeltl to trade him. All just 6 months after offering him the extension without any true pressure to do so. It was a catastrophic mistake that will be difficult to come back from.
The Raptors will likely try to include him in trade negotiations; perhaps another team is similarly tricked by his height and reasonable box score stats. At the end of the day, however, the Raptors made a huge mistake giving Poeltl this extension. At least as of Wednesday, they are allowed to move on.
That is, if anyone will let them.