Scottie Barnes' development has not been linear. After winning Rookie of the Year, he didn't improve much in year two. Then, in year three, he made a leap, earning his first All-Star nod. Then, last year was another step back. His efficiency was down, the team was not good, and there wasn't much consistency. He didn't look like someone coming off the best season of their career.
If we follow that trend, though, then another breakout might be in store! And not only would it be nice to have, it will be necessary for the struggling Raptors, who haven't been great on either end of the court this year. The 1.5 steps forward, one step back approach that Barnes appears to be deploying in his NBA career is often frustrating... But the "forward" seasons are pretty fun, and that's what 2025-26 needs to be.
Integrating Brandon Ingram into the fold has proven to be a tougher task than Raptors fans envisioned; despite pretty good individual stats from each of the Raps' core players, the team overall has looked disjointed. For Barnes to be the franchise-saving talent that he's teased fans of being to this point, the onus might fall on him to become the connector for making a bunch of good players into a good team. He, in theory, is a two-way force, both the team's leading scorer, its best playmaker, and its vocal leader on defense. It's a big responsibility — but it's a fair ask for such a talent.
One of the biggest hurdles en route to that breakout would be a jump in efficiency, and Barnes shooting consistently is the quickest road to that goal. Early on, that aspect is promising.
Scottie Barnes, sharpshooter?
That's what Raptors fans hoped for all along, and it's what he's providing in the (very) early portion of this season. Barnes is 11 for 20 from deep in the Raptors first five games. A tiny sample size, and actually a decrease in attempts per game versus the past two seasons, but a promising sign nonetheless.
If Barnes becomes a low-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooter, it suddenly makes him an obvious perennial All-Star candidate. After shooting a career-worst 27% last year, Raptors fans are cautiously excited at his hot start this season.
And while he's not expected to be a 50-plus percent 3-point shooter forever (unless he turned into the greatest shooter ever and we somehow missed it), Barnes hovering around league-average would be a big win for his development. It's one of the last big hurdles Barnes needs to clear, and it would open up so many other facets of his game that haven't been available due to defenses not being scared of his outside shot.
If you only watch Scottie Barnes play basketball every other year, you probably either think he's a future Hall-of-Famer — or on his last NBA contract. In 2025-26, if he can take the step forward that history suggests he will, then the Raptors outlook might not be as dark as it seems right now.