The Raptors are going back to Cleveland with the series tied 2-2—a pretty good position considering that they were not considered the favorite going into the series and struggled mightily in the first two games. They have found ways to score despite their offensive limitations with Immanuel Quickley sidelined. They have proven they can grind out ugly wins, and they have found some success with their defense against Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.
Both Mitchell and Harden are great offensive creators and shotmakers, but they struggled in Games 3 and 4, missing shots and turning the ball over. Limiting their offensive production allows the Raptors to keep up with the Cavs’ usually high-scoring offense.
The Cavs will be desperate to win Game 5, but Harden hasn’t been overly successful in similar situations in recent years, as Brian Windhorst outlined on ESPNCleveland’s segment 5 Good Minutes With Windy.
“Harden has this reputation for not delivering in big moments in the playoffs, but he has a reputation for being great in a lot of playoff games,” Windhorst said. “Unfortunately, that’s held true. He was great in Games 1 and 2. I’m just going to tell you that in his last four Game 5s when it’s 2-2—and that’s the thing, the guy has played in so many playoff series that the data set is enormous—in his last four times when it’s been 2-2, Game 5, some of them have been at home, some of them have been away, he shot 33% and averaged 12 points.”
Windhorst also noted that Harden put together impressive 30-point games in the same situation in previous seasons, so a bad game from him may not be overly surprising but it certainly isn’t a given. It would absolutely increase the Raptors’ chances of stealing Game 5 in Cleveland, though.
Limiting Harden and Mitchell offensively gives the Raptors an advantage
When Mitchell and Harden both score in the 20s or 30s, as they did in Games 1 and 2 (Harden scored 22 and 28 points and Mitchell scored 32 and 30), and other players pitch in as well, it’s difficult for the Raptors to keep up scoring-wise.
The duo’s production was less impressive in the two games in Toronto, which played a huge role in the Raptors’ wins. In Game 3, Harden and Mitchell both scored below 20 points and combined for 11 turnovers. They scored 19 and 20 points, respectively, in Game 4 and turned the ball over 11 times again.
Another game like that from one or both would make Game 5 in front of a hostile crowd an easier game for the Raptors. But they can’t just expect Harden to follow his recent trend. They will have to give him a nudge in the right direction with that tough, physical defense they showed in the last two games.
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