The Toronto Raptors appear to be souring on third-year wing Gradey Dick, moving him toward the edge of the rotation and giving him major minutes only when a player in front of him is injured. The problem with that approach? They are better when he plays than when he doesn't, suggesting a better player hidden within that needs to be unlocked.
A quick glance at his stats would likely yield a similar conclusion as the Raptors: Gradey Dick doesn't have it. The player drafted for his knockdown shooting ability is hitting only 30.6 percent of his 3-point attempts this year. Unsurprisingly, his 3-point rate has also slipped to a career-low mark.
There is nothing else undeniable about his game. He is a fine rebounder, a nonexistent playmaker and has decently-good hands to generate steals. He has not been and doesn't project to become an above-average defender. It isn't a surprise that the Raptors have reduced him to just 15.3 minutes per game.
Put all of that data together, and you would expect to find a player who is actively harming his team's ability to win. Strangely enough, however, the opposite is true. When Gradey Dick is on the court, the Raptors are better than when he is off.
Gradey Dick is helping the Toronto Raptors
Databallr.com allows you to look at a player's on-off with garbage time removed, allowing for a more accurate view of how a player is impacting a team on possessions that matter. This season, Gradey Dick has played 2,710 minutes of meaningful basketball.
In those minutes, the Raptors are 2.3 points per 100 possession better when Dick is on the court than when he is off. Toronto outscores the opponent by 3.3 points per 100 when Gradey Dick plays, and by just 1.0 points when he sits.
That doesn't mean he is some massively positive player; opponents are somewhat cold from 3-point range when he is on the court, something he and the Raptors defense overall don't have much impact on. Yet they also force turnovers on a much higher percentage of possessions when Dick plays, something he might be having an impact on.
Gradey Dick has found his
Looking even deeper, Dick has specifically found his place thriving alongside certain other teammates. Out of all three-person lineups that have played at least 25 minutes this season, Toronto's second-most effective lineup features Dick playing with rookie big Colin Murray-Boyles and since-traded wing Ochai Agbaji. The 5th-most effective has Dick playing small forward beside Immanuel Quickley and Jamal Shead.
In fact, Dick shows up in seven of Toronto's 13 best three-man lineups, and in five of those he is paired alongside Shead. The bulldog defensive point guard is another ballhawk, and together the two are forcing plenty of turnovers. Dick's defense overall has improved from disastrous to mediocre this season, a meaningful progression even if it's not spectacular.
The Raptors may move on from Dick this summer, or they may turn him into an expiring contract by failing to agree to a rookie extension. If they can, however, it might make sense to offer a low-level extension, hoping to lock him down to a multi-year deal that gives Dick a baseline of millions of dollars but leaves open the possibility of a late leap.
If the Raptors truly are better with Dick on the court, be that because of his shooting gravity, his steal generation or his overall versatility, then there might be something there, waiting to be unlocked.
Can Toronto unlock it? It might be worth taking the time to figure that out.