As it currently stands, the Toronto Raptors hold a 44-35 record, which has them as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. The tight race to get out of the play-in still stands, and the hope remains that this squad can get some much-needed postseason reps under their belt.
I believe that, regardless of who Toronto faces in the playoffs, it raises the question of how prepared and equipped the Raptors truly are for a playoff atmosphere. If we look solely at their record against top-tier teams this year, the results are definitely means for concern: Toronto has managed just a 1-10 record against top-3 teams in the East, and a 6-21 record against teams with a top-10 record across the entire NBA.
The Raptors may have been able to stay playoff-relevant all year, but now it's crunch time. Toronto has to be ready to face the spotlight and live up to showtime. Throughout the season, Toronto has secured key wins by playing to their pace, passing the ball, pushing the tempo, forcing turnovers, and scoring in transition. But this question has been raised multiple times before, and I’ll ask it again here: how sustainable is this reliance on the two's versus three's game?
Can the Raptors go far in the playoffs as a 'non-shooting' team?
The Raptors' lack of identity as a three-point shooting team is quite evident. In fact, considering their clear weakness in three-point shooting, especially on wide-open looks, Toronto's winning record is rather impressive all things considered.
Toronto is ranked 22nd in team three-point field goal percentage at 35.2 percent. They rank 25th in three-point attempts per game at 32.3, making just 11.4 per game, putting them at 26th across the entire league. Despite the poor sample size, don't get it twisted. Toronto's roster still features some solid shooters, even if you can just count them on one hand. Look at the emergence of Ja'Kobe Walter, who has arguably become the Raptors' best 3PT threat, Immanuel Quickley, of course, and others like Brandon Ingram and Sandro Mamukelashvili.
My colleague Daniel O'Connor just highlighted that shooting is not this team's identity, and I totally understand that. I'm not expecting the Raptors to suddenly become laser-sharp snipers in the offseason or even in this final stretch (though they did win the 3PT battle against Miami in their last game). I know how this team operates and the culture they've built throughout a gritty and often turbulent year, but it's also crystal clear how much shooting can influence wins and losses.
Even Daniel acknowledged that the main downside of Toronto playing inside instead of outside is that twos are worth less than threes. There have been moments this season when opposing teams catch fire from deep, and Toronto struggles to contain the barrage. I've seen it happen at various points during the season, against teams like the Nuggets, Knicks, or Spurs, just off the top of my head.
A hot shooting team can shift momentum in an instant. New York, Atlanta, Charlotte, Boston, and Detroit (albeit by a small margin) are all better three-point shooting teams than Toronto, and they're all potential playoff foes that await.
Asking Toronto to outshoot these teams is already a tall order, which raises concerns about whether the Raptors are adequately built to handle this crucial playoff factor. I wouldn't count them out solely because of this (after all, they made it this far for a reason), but don't be surprised if one of the Raptors' biggest challenges in the playoffs is their difficulty responding back to three-point scoring runs.