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Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard extension looks risky compared to Rockets’ Kevin Durant deal

Kevin Durant signed for a lot less.
ByElaine Blum
Oct 19, 2018; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during their game against the Boston Celtics at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors beat the Celtics 113-101. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 19, 2018; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during their game against the Boston Celtics at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors beat the Celtics 113-101. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kawhi Leonard signed a two-year, $115 million extension with the Raptors. For the Raptors, it’s a win in two ways: unlike last time they traded for him, he seems truly committed to sticking around long-term, and it’s not as much money as extending Leonard could have cost them. 

The latter is a small victory, however. It’s still a hefty extension, especially considering what Kevin Durant is making with the Houston Rockets, as CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn outlined on the Third Apron Podcast. Durant signed a two-year, $90 million extension with the Rockets in 2025, which is well under the max and notably less than Leonard, even though the two enjoy a similar status around the league. 

“Kawhi’s contract is going to pay him just under 32% of the cap in each of his two years,” Quinn said. “Kevin Durant’s deal is going to pay him, I think, 26.5% or so in both years of his extension…I think they’re comparable value as players. Kawhi was slightly better last year. Kawhi is a little bit younger. Kevin Durant, I think, is a little bit more reliable from a health standpoint, although neither of them are obviously perfect in that regard. This feels a little heavy to me.” 

Quinn also noted that Durant’s contract takes into account that at 37 “both decline in playing quality and decline in playing time are possible,” whereas Leonard’s deal reflects no such protections for the Raptors despite the known injury concerns. 

The Raptors seem confident that they can keep Leonard healthy

The Raptors have one season with Leonard in which they kept him healthy enough to play 60 regular-season games and then average almost 40 minutes per game in the playoffs as he led the Raptors to a title. They also got Brandon Ingram to play the most games since his rookie season in 2016-17 last season. 

That inspires some confidence that they can keep Leonard relatively healthy once again—and the Raptors definitely seem to believe that judging by the extension they gave him. They are, after all, paying him as if he will be healthy for three years, as Quinn put it. 

We saw last season what Leonard can do when he is healthy enough to play 65 games. He averaged 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 50.5% from the field and 38.7% on 3-pointers. He was a top-ten player in the league, even if it didn’t result in a trip to the playoffs. 

The Raptors’ faith in Leonard may seem ambitious—or even misguided—but it could be rewarded in the best way possible. If Leonard plays like he did last season and can bring the Raptors back to contention, no one will care how much they’re paying him compared to other stars in their mid-to-late thirties. However, if Leonard is constantly injured and doesn’t elevate the Raptors as much as expected, the extension will be a topic of much discussion, especially considering the bad contracts the Toronto front office handed out to Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. 

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