Earlier in the season, Toronto flirted with a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they could not sustain that pace. As the season unfolded, four teams separated themselves from the rest of the conference: the Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers.
No matter how things played out, Toronto was always going to face a difficult first-round matchup. But as the bracket settled, they may have landed on the best possible opponent.
Toronto avoided nightmare scenarios
Of the top teams in the East, Boston clearly presents the most daunting challenge. They won a championship two seasons ago and have appeared in six of the last nine Eastern Conference Finals. They also dominated this matchup all season, going 4-0 against Toronto with an average margin of victory of 11.5 points. The experience gap alone would make this a difficult series to navigate.
New York does not have the same recent playoff success as Boston, but they dominated Toronto even more convincingly this season. The Knicks went 5-0 against the Raptors with an average margin of victory of 19.6 points.
Detroit has been the best team in the conference all season. They won 60 games and led the East in net rating at +8.4.
Cleveland presents a different challenge
That leaves Cleveland. The Cavaliers look dangerous on paper, but they are more fragile than the other contenders. They made a blockbuster midseason trade, moving 26-year-old, two-time All-Star Darius Garland for 36-year-old, eleven-time All-Star James Harden.
Toronto went 3-0 against Cleveland this season, although all three games came before the trade. Since acquiring Harden, the Cavaliers have gone 22-9, a significant improvement from their 30-21 record beforehand.
Still, it is fair to question how much of that success will translate to the playoffs. Harden has a lackluster postseason track record, and outside of him and Mitchell, the Cavaliers lack reliable shot creation.
I have already written about how Toronto can defend both Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. If the Raptors are able to slow those two down, Cleveland’s offense could stall quickly.
Another key difference between the Cavaliers and the other Eastern Conference contenders is their defense.
Boston, Detroit, and New York all rank inside the top seven in defensive rating. Cleveland ranks 15th, and since acquiring Harden, they have ranked 17th. For all of Harden’s offensive brilliance, he has never been a positive defender.
A matchup Toronto can attack
Cleveland is still a dangerous team. Donovan Mitchell can take over games, and Harden is capable of controlling stretches with his playmaking and scoring.
But compared to Boston, New York, and Detroit, this is the best matchup for Toronto to pull off an upset. The Raptors have the defensive personnel to pressure Cleveland’s two primary creators, and the Cavaliers’ defensive limitations give Toronto opportunities on the other end.
If the Raptors were going to choose their first-round opponent, this is likely the one they would have picked.
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