Raptors are locked at these draft odds but lottery luck has blessed them before

I think it's safe to assume those in Tank Nation were understandably disappointed by the Raptors' recent success, especially since it was largely due to their easy schedule after the All-Star break. This unexpected surge really put a strain on the team's chances of slipping to the bottom for a better shot at improving their lottery odds.

I essentially pointed out in late January that the Raptors' status as being one of the worst teams in the league were behind them. This realization set the stage for what turned out to be a highly successful second half of the season.

Even Ryen Russillo pointed out on The Bill Simmons Podcast how impressed he was by the Raptors' ability to bounce back. He highlighted the effective coaching of Darko Rajakovic, especially considering their initial intention to tank. They had the right strategy, but the execution just didn't lead to the results they hoped for.

The Spurs-Warriors matchup on April 9 effectively locked in the lottery odds for Toronto. As a result, they now hold the "7th-best odds in the May 12 draft lottery: a 7.5% chance at landing the 1st-overall pick & 31.9% chance of moving into the top 4," as noted by Raptors insider Josh Lewenberg on X.

Raptors hold 7th-best lottery odds for 1st overall pick in 2025 NBA Draft

I think most Raptors fans have already accepted the reality of finishing with the 7th or 8th best lottery odds since early March. Now that we know this is the actual situation, how can the lottery gods smile on Toronto when the draft lottery finally takes place?

Raptors reporter Zulfi Sheikh recently highlighted on X how teams with the 7th-best lottery odds have fared in the past six draft years:

If you're part of the Raptors' brass, you have to be hoping for some sort of miracle like in 2019, where the Pelicans shot up to the 1st overall pick. But let's be real—that would take a truly extraordinary stroke of luck.

It might be more realistic to hope for a repeat of what they experienced in the 2021 NBA Draft, when they had the opportunity to pick franchise cornerstone Scottie Barnes with the 4th overall selection.

At the time, many were surprised by the outcome, both the Raptors’ fortunate rise to a higher draft position and final decision that followed. Most chatter in the rumor mill had Gonzaga standout guard Jalen Suggs headed to Toronto. However, Scottie Barnes would end up emerging as a centerpiece of the Raptors' next generation.

The Raptors find themselves in a decent spot regarding their draft position, especially considering things could be much worse. Yes, there’s a possibility that they could drop to the 9th or 10th overall pick, but that’s a bit of a pessimistic outlook. If recent draft results serve as any comfort to nervous Raptors fans, they should focus on the potential for a top-four pick. History shows that the Raptors have had success in the past, so there's reason to be optimistic.

The Raptors have a strong track record with their fourth overall picks, highlighted by the Scottie Barnes selection, and let’s not forget about Chris Bosh from the legendary 2003 NBA Draft. If the 9th pick has some fans feeling nervous, remember that the Raptors used that spot to select future star DeMar DeRozan in 2009 and a solid big man in Jakob Poeltl in 2016 (even if the pick came via trade).

I think the moral here is to have faith in the Raptors' management and scouting team to find talent no matter what position is on the table. I get that Cooper Flagg is the crown jewel, but it can't just be a one-player class, even if all the hype is on one guy.

Think about all the talent across the board in a draft class that end up turning out to be stars of the future. Recent classes have guys like Tyler Herro, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Williams, Alperen Sengun, among many others.

Everyone is going to pay attention to the shiny star, but as I've already reiterated in other pieces, the 2025 NBA Draft class is chock-full of intriguing prospects who could fall to the later spots. If Toronto happens to secure a top-four pick, it's safe to say they're in a strong position to add a quality talent beyond a doubt.

Who knows if Toronto will win the lottery this year? While we wait, we can look back at previous years to help calm our nerves. It's at least reassuring to remember that the outcomes can still be positive, even if they don’t end up winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.