The Toronto Raptors’ offensive shortcomings are no secret. They finished the regular season 21st in 3-point percentage and 26th in 3-point attempts and makes.
That’s a weakness that the Cleveland Cavaliers can exploit in their first-round series, as Kirk Goldsberry broke down on the April 16 episode of The Zach Lowe Show.
“Are we going to finally see Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley play a lot together?” Goldsberry said. “Because that gives Cleveland, I think, their most competent defensive look, especially against a team that can’t shoot very well. Toronto, I think, is fourth in the NBA in points in the paint per game. They need to get to the rim to be effective on offense.“
He also noted that the Cavs have a defensive rating of 108.2 when Allen and Mobley share the floor.
The Raptors have actually shot the three well recently
Overall, the Raptors aren’t a great 3-point shooting team. But they were efficient from behind the arc over their last fifteen games, shooting 40.1% on 28.1 attempts per game. That’s third in the league, trailing only the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers. Those fifteen games also included some tough fixtures, like matchups with Detroit, Boston, and New York, and must-win games against the Heat to close out the season.
The Raptors’ most efficient shooter over that stretch was Ja’Kobe Walter, who sank 53.8% of his 5.2 attempts per game. Sandro Mamukelashvili and Brandon Ingram also shot over 40% on a little over three attempts per game.
If they can bring that accuracy from three to the playoffs—which is a big if—it will vastly improve the Raptors’ chances of keeping up with the Cavs’ high-scoring offense and breaking down their defense.
Nevertheless, there are some spacing concerns, especially if Immanuel Quickley can’t play a ton because of the hamstring issue he’s been dealing with. Jakob Pöltl doesn’t shoot threes, and the Cavs will dare Scottie Barnes to punish them from behind the arc. He also shot above his season average over the last fifteen games, but he is still a streaky shooter and definitely not at his best behind the arc.
That could push Walter and Mamu into big roles alongside Barnes, Ingram, and RJ Barrett. It’s much more difficult to crowd the paint against a Barnes-Mamu frontcourt than against a Barnes-Pöltl duo because Mamu is a willing and capable outside shooter.
Creating more space will also benefit Ingram, who will face plenty of mismatches, because the Cavs won’t be able to help off open shooters as much.
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