I’ve made it clear since the Kawhi Leonard trade was first reported that I do see the Toronto Raptors as part of the upper echelon of teams in the NBA. The main reason for that is their defense, as truly, I ask you to find me a better defensive trio than Scottie Barnes, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Leonard. That three-man unit has the ability to shut the water off defensively on any team out East and arguably out West too.
However, if there is one that Raptors fans need to hope doesn’t cross with Toronto this postseason, it has to be the Miami Heat.
Sure, you can say that Philadelphia has more star power, the Knicks have more chemistry, the Cavs have more size. But no one in the East has better coaching and a more challenging defensive roster for a team like the Raptors than the Miami Heat.
The Heat are a nightmare matchup for the Raptors
Obviously, everyone knows by now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is a member of the Heat, forming a scary frontcourt with Bam Adebayo. That’s where the problems start for Toronto.
Last season, we saw that if the Raptors have one offensive weakness, it’s three-point production. It’s not that they are god-awful or lack any good shooters, but this team thrives in the open floor and at attacking the basket. Sure, Leonard is expected to provide a slight uptick to the team's floor spacing, but his addition alone doesn’t magically make Toronto an elite three-point shooting team. This would very much play in Miami’s favor in a seven-game series.
Think about it: the Raptors trying to get downhill and score at the rim when two top-five rim protectors, when healthy, are waiting down there for them? Doesn’t sound great if you ask me.
In Giannis's last healthy season (2024-25), he finished seventh in the league in defensive field goal percentage on shots 6 feet or closer from the basket among players who played 65-plus games. Pairing that production with Bam, who has five top-five finishes for Defensive Player of the Year in his career and averaged 1.9 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game last season, is a scary pairing.
Beyond rim protection, even if Toronto tried to beat the Heat by playing a style more reliant on three-point shooting, their perimeter defense in the starting five is elite as well. Outside of Bam and Giannis, they have Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and one of Pelle Larsson or Klay Thompson. That five-man group switches and rotates around the perimeter and would make creating from beyond the arc hell for Toronto.
Then you look at Miami's offense, and those same paint issues re-emerge.
Because although Leonard, Barnes, and CMB can protect the rim, are they going to be able to get stop after stop on Giannis and Bam rim running or crashing the offensive glass? Probably not, and Jakob Poeltl isn’t physically or athletically equipped enough anymore to help even things out for the Raptors in those departments. Then you think about the kick-out threes to Tim Hardaway Jr., Klay, Wiggins, and Larsson, and their offensive attack only seems crisper.
Ideally, Toronto avoids the Heat as a whole in the playoffs or doesn’t have to see them till the Eastern Conference Finals. But with how deep and talented the East is set to be this season, one win or one loss at the end of the season could shift the standings and set up these two to face off in a round one matchup. So keep your fingers, toes, and maybe your body crossed that it doesn’t go that way, because if it does, year one of Kawhi’s return could end in an ugly way.
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