After a 115-101 loss to the Boston Celtics, the Toronto Raptors are now back in seventh place and the play-in picture. The 76ers also lost to Detroit, but they still hold the tiebreaker over the Raptors due to division record.
So, unless either team can somehow catch up with the Hawks, the final outright playoff spot will come down to the Raptors and the 76ers. Due to the tiebreaker situation, the Raptors would have to finish the regular season with more wins than the 76ers to climb out of the play-in tournament.
Both teams have four games left in the season. As TSN Raptors beat reporter Josh Lewenberg broke down on X, the Raptors will have to win at least two of their three games against the Miami Heat and New York Knicks. Even if the 76ers only beat the Pacers and Bucks and lose to the Spurs and Rockets, just taking care of business against the Nets won’t be enough for the Raptors to finish with a better record.
It will be a challenge, but it’s doable
Beating the Knicks has been absolutely impossible for the Raptors this season. They already fell to the Knicks four times this season, and all games ended with at least a 16-point margin. While the Knicks’ spot in the playoffs is already secure, they will have extra motivation to win the game to build momentum before the postseason and not allow the Cavs to get too close in the standings.
The Raptors have a much better chance of beating the Heat. They did it twice in December, and the Heat lost seven of their last ten games.
But, of course, beating Miami and/or New York might not matter much if the Raptors waste another opportunity against a losing team as they did against the Kings. Even if they do what they’re supposed to do—beat the Nets and win at least two out of three games against Miami and New York—the 76ers could spoil everything by beating the Spurs and/or Rockets.
Either way, the Raptors will face a tough postseason
If the Raptors climb into sixth place and the top of the Eastern Conference doesn’t change, they will have to face the Knicks. That would probably be a short, unpleasant series. The Knicks have the size to compete with the Raptors, a more versatile offense, and playoff experience.
Still, facing the Knicks in the first round would be the easy option.
If the Raptors stay in the play-in tournament, they would have to beat a Hornets team that’s playing really well right now to play their way into a first-round series against the Celtics—another team they haven’t been able to beat—or, if they lose to the Hornets, battle the winner of the 9/10 matchup to secure the final playoff spot.