The Toronto Raptors have built a good team that is on track to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. If they ultimately fall short, it will probably be because they didn't get enough from Jakob Poeltl -- a player they just committed $104 million to this summer in what looks like a grave mistake.
The Raptors came into the season with a roster that was counting on a plethora of good players to raise the floor of the team and move them up the standings. Thus far, that approach has worked well; they may not have a single All-Star, but the likes of Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes are leading the way, and they have a full bench of playable options.
While the Raptors won't be playing on Christmas Day, they do sit at fourth in the East with an 18-13 record, better than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who did get the preseason nod to play on the holiday. They have an average offense and the league's 4th-best defense, again built on the principle of every position having a good option and no glaring defensive weak points.
The anchor of their defense is Jakob Poeltl, the franchise's beloved player. Not that Poeltl is all that beloved by fans, but the front office is obsessed with him. They drafted him, traded real assets to bring him back, and just this summer handed him a lucrative contract extension that will pay him top-tier center money for four seasons after this one.
Such an extension seemed like a massive mistake the moment it was announced. Poeltl is the epitome of an average center, a good defender and a decent scorer who doesn't bring game-changing impact in any way and whose secondary skills are all overrated. He is the kind of player a team looks to upgrade on when it's time to take the next step.
Instead, the Raptors went all-in with Poeltl, giving him a pay raise and ensuring he would be around for a long time. How has Poeltl responded to this vote of confidence from the franchise? By taking every concern about him to the maximum level.
Jakob Poeltl's extension looks like a disaster
Now 30 years old, Poeltl's game is clearly beginning to erode. He is taking the fewest shots per game by far in seven years, limiting himself to the easiest attempts and otherwise passing out or not fighting to get the ball in the first place. On defense, his block rate is half of what it was last year, and his steal and rebound rates have decreased as well.
Add to that reality that he is also missing time with a recurring back injury, a red flag for an aging seven-footer. He has played in just 21 of the team's 31 games this season, putting pressure on a roster with a collection of power forwards all trying to cover the need at center.
One-third of a season doesn't doom the rest of Poeltl's career, but do the Raptors think that an aging, injury-prone big is going to suddenly reverse course moving forward? The franchise committed to Poeltl through his age-34 season. That is a long time to be paying top-tier money for a player who may not be playable by the end of this deal.
The extension looked like a mistake at the time, and as Poeltl is in-and-out of the lineup on a game-by-game basis, it is only getting worse. Poeltl can barely move with his back injury, and the Raptors can barely hope to move in another direction because of the contract that is already underwater for Poeltl.
It's not where the franchise needed to be, but it's the bed that they have made. Now they have to lie in it.