The Toronto Raptors cannot feel great about drafting Gradey Dick in the 2023 NBA Draft lottery. As players picked after him break out and his career stagnates, their regret only grows more powerful.
The Raptors found themselves holding the No. 13 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. It was a draft loaded with star power, something expected at the time of the draft and which has largely played out since. Victor Wembanyama went first overall and is a generational superstar. The top 5 also yielded Brandon Miller and the Thompson brothers, Amen and Ausar, who are all on upward trajectories.
None of those players were on the board for the Raptors. Just before they selected, Cason Wallace and Dereck Lively were drafted, both of whom are elite defensive players and have started NBA Finals games since being drafted.
The Raptors drafted Kansas shooter Gradey Dick, a decision that has brought ups and downs as his career started to take off in fits and starts before falling back into neutral.
Now in his third season, Gradey Dick has failed rather spectacularly at the one thing he was supposed to be great at: shooting the basketball. He looks like an excellent shooter, but the ball is not going into the basket. He is a career 35.2 percent shooter from 3-point range and is hitting only 31.3 from deep this year. That's simply not good enough for a player who takes many other things off the table.
Billed as the best shooter in his class, Dick ranks just 15th in 3-point percentage. As a below-average passer, terrible defender and mediocre shooter, he also rates significantly below replacement level as an overall player. 49 players have provided more "Value Over Replacement Player" from the 60 players selected. It has been a brutal start to his career.
After being a full-time starter last year, the addition of Brandon Ingram has pushed Dick back to the bench. And as the likes of Ja'Kobe Walter and even the undrafted Jamison Battle outplay him, his career is on shaky ground.
That reality only twists the knife for the Raptors, who are off to a strong start this season. What better player could they have taken instead to better elevate their young core?
The Raptors missed on better players
One saving grace may be that if they were deciding between sharpshooting 2-guards, they at least did not take Jordan Hawkins, who went with the next pick to the New Orleans Pelicans and has somehow been even worse than Dick.
Yet looming just beyond are a string of players who are all leveling up this season. Keyonte George looks like the best point guard in the draft class; he went 16th to the Utah Jazz. He is averaging 22.8 points per game and dishing 6.9 assists per game and looks like the long-term starting point guard for the Jazz.
Two picks later, the Miami Heat drafted Jaime Jaquez Jr. The All-Rookie selection had a rough sophomore season but is breaking out in his third year, averaging 15.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game as the Heat's sixth man.
At pick No. 19 was Brandin Podziemski, who is a key rotation player for the Golden State Warriors. He has a smaller role than George or Jaquez but is also the best shooter, knocking down 39.6 percent from deep on 4.8 attempts per game.
Downstream there are other players who are more valuable now than Dick is, but were not realistically in play at No. 13. Toumani Camara is one of the league's best perimeter defenders and is a reasonable outside shooter. Mouhamed Gueye went 39th and is turning into a valuable rotation forward for the Atlanta Hawks. Jordan Walsh is having a breakout season for the Boston Celtics after going 38th. Noah Clowney, Ben Sheppard, Cam Whitmore and Brice Sensabaugh have all had their moments.
Gradey Dick is not a lost cause; he could still turn things around. Thus far, however, the Raptors have to regret not going in a different direction. And as players like George and Jaquez level up, their regret only grows more bitter.