This Raptors rookie forward emerges as an outlier in a weak 2024 class

Expectations for the 2024 NBA Draft class were modest, as it was widely viewed as one of the weakest pools of prospects the league has seen in recent years. Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, and Reed Sheppard earned top billing as the first three draft selections. While each player demonstrates notable talent and potential, their skill sets do not inspire the same level of awe as recent generational talents like Zion Williamson and Victor Wembanyama.

The entire rookie class is underperforming, as reflected in the disappointing shooting percentages of the top three picks: Risacher at 31%, Sarr at 37%, and Sheppard at 40%, with an average of just 2.5 points per game. However, not all is bleak, as a few standout players have emerged from an otherwise average roster. Among them is Jonathan Mogbo, a USF (University of San Francisco) product who is now making his mark as a forward for the Raptors.

Jonathan Mogbo is a cut above the rest

Mogbo was chosen by the Toronto Raptors with the 31st overall pick. While first-round talents often receive the most attention, being chosen first in the second round is a significant achievement in its own right. The 6-foot-6 forward/center drew attention for his pre-draft connection to the Toronto Raptors, thanks to his close childhood friendship with franchise star Scottie Barnes.

Much of the analysis of Mogbo's game highlights his versatility as a burly forward capable of finishing inside and securing rebounds at an impressive rate. Additionally, there is considerable interest in his potential as a playmaker and his room for growth as a ball handler. However, concerns were raised regarding his undersized stature for the position.

Despite struggling significantly during the preseason, where he achieved a disappointing 27% field goal percentage, Jonathan Mogbo serves as a prime example of why a player's true potential cannot be accurately assessed based solely on his early shortcomings.

Mogbo has established a consistent role in the Raptors' rotation, averaging approximately 17 minutes per game. He has impressed with an average of seven points and just over four rebounds, while also showcasing his defensive skills with 1.3 steals per game. The three-point shot is an area for improvement, currently at just 20%. However, this aspect is not a core part of Mogbo's game at the moment, allowing him time to develop this skill.

Here’s where Raptors fans can feel excitement about their dynamic rookie forward. Currently, Mogbo is the only rookie in his class with a positive VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). For those unfamiliar with the term, it represents a box score metric that calculates the points a player adds beyond what a replacement player (set at -2.0) would contribute for every 100 team possessions. This metric accounts for the performance of a typical team and is normalized over the course of an 82-game season.

Jonathan Mogbo is certainly making his mark in the league, not only for the Raptors but also among the pool of 2024 rookies across the NBA. He is already a valuable bench player capable of influencing the game's dynamics, so the next step is to hope that Mogbo can elevate to another level in the coming seasons. If he continues to excel, it will be difficult to challenge Jonathan Mogbo's rightful position on the All-Rookie First Team.

In fact, he may even find himself in discussions for NBA Rookie of the Year if the circumstances align favorably.