The Toronto Raptors made a mistake this summer. It was the kind of mistake that seems innocuous on the surfact, but that will hinder the Raptors from becoming a relevant team for years to come. That mistake was signing veteran center Jakob Poeltl to a new extension that will pay him $104 million over the next four seasons.
The Raptors have had a fascination with Poeltl for years and years. It dates back to the 2016 NBA Draft, when the Raptors drafted him No. 9 overall out of Utah. He was included in the Kawhi Leonard trade that brought the franchise its first championship, but the front office apparently continued to pine after the Austrian seven-footer.
After 4.5 unremarkable seasons in San Antonio, the Spurs fleeced the Raptors in his return trip, extracting three draft picks, including the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Toronto had their man, however, and he proceeded to man the middle for...a 57-76 record in games where Poeltl played.
The Raptors are in love with Jakob Poeltl
The Raptors seem to think that Poeltl is some sort of two-way monster in the vein of Ivica Zubac or Jarrett Allen, whose size and shot-blocking prowess wall off the paint and whose touch and passing on offense scare opposing defenses. The problem is that Poeltl doesn't do any of those things at a high level.
Among all players to defend at least four shots in the paint per game last season, Poeltl ranked 41st in his impact on opposing field goal percentage. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. When you factor in that he isn't mobile enough to defend in space and has to be in a conservative scheme, it becomes less of a strength and more of merely being big and in the paint.
Poeltl isn't ending plays in the paint either. He averaged just 1.2 blocks per game last season despite playing 30 minutes; his block percentage of 4.0 percent was better, at 15th, but not elite - especially when you factor in how many names just missed the list because of the games played cutoff.
On offense, Poeltl doesn't have touch to score anywhere away from the rim, and he is just mediocre at the rim. He can make dunks and layups if there is no one contesting him, but against a contest he is repeatedly flummoxed. He has good hands to secure rebounds -- no one is contending that Poeltl is a terrible player; he has some real strengths -- but not the touch to score once he has the ball.
Poeltl is a mediocre passer, cannot handle the ball and has averaged just 54 games per season the last two years. What about that profile screams long-term center of the future? Again, Poeltl is fine; he is a passable starting center, somewhere around the 20-25 range among centers leaguewide.
He will also turn 30 years old before the start of the season and plays for a Toronto Raptors team that is not currently contending in the Eastern Conference. His lack of shooting also makes him a difficult fit next to Scottie Barnes, who would be actualized next to the stretch big. Paying Poeltl such a large contract precludes the Raptors from making a large investment in a more offensively potent option.
The Raptors had a chance to pivot away from the Jakob Poeltl experience this summer. Instead of exploring such options, however, they doubled down. They reportedly made Poeltl "off limits" in Kevin Durant trade discussions, then with top center prospect Khaman Maluach on the board in the 2025 NBA Draft they instead drafted another toolsy forward in Collin Murray-Boyles.
The last step in this disastrous journey was the extension, paying Poeltl at the level of a fringe All-Star despite his inconsistent and eroding level of two-way play. The Raptors should be exploring high-upside moves to build out their roster, but instead they continue to overpay this own players and feed this unhealthy obsession with Jakob Poeltl.