For many, the most important factor in the Toronto Raptors' title chances in 2026-27 is whether the Kawhi Leonard trade goes through. Assuming the league finally reaches a verdict and allows Leonard to join Toronto, the next biggest factor in whether this team is a true contender is which version of Jakob Poeltl they get. Poeltl has been on a steady decline since returning to Toronto and could draw inspiration from a familiar foe of the franchise, Brook Lopez.
Lopez was a dominant force Toronto struggled to stop during his days with the Brooklyn Nets before joining the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19. At their primes, Lopez and Poeltl were completely different players. Lopez was a high-level scoring big who is the all-time leading scorer in Nets history, and Poeltl has always been a back-to-the-basket big with some passing in his game.
Obviously, the transition for Poeltl won’t be like the one Lopez underwent after joining the Bucks, where he became an elite floor spacer and defensive player of the year candidate. The idea of him becoming that is incredibly unrealistic and won’t happen. However, if he can borrow Lopez's willingness to reinvent himself at 30 for a contender, Toronto's hopes of hanging a second banner become much more realistic.
Jakob Poeltl reinventing himself could bust Toronto's title window wide open
When Lopez arrived in Milwaukee and was paired with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, he knew all he had to do was be the fourth most important player on the court. His role wasn’t hard. Essentially all Lopez was tasked with was finishing plays, defending the rim, rebounding, and hitting pick-and-pop threes.
With the Raptors, Poeltl will be asked to do even less.
Looking at the Raptors’ projected starting five, you have Leonard, Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett with Jak at the five. This starting five is definitely more equipped offensively than the Bucks were when Lopez joined. So the need for Poeltl to be a floor spacer or a weapon offensively is zero. All he needs to do is turn that clock back a bit and really zone in on rebounding and being a rim protector. Last season, he averaged 0.7 blocks and 7 rebounds over only 46 games, which won’t cut it this time around.
A cool nine points and nine rebounds stat line with 1.5 blocks per game is attainable and would be more than enough for the Raptors. Having Jak be a reliable play finisher, close possessions strong with defensive rebounds, and be that last line of defense at the rim or a reliable help defender for Barnes or Leonard would be ideal.
I understand the Lopez comp may not be perfect, but the point I’m trying to convey is Lopez scaled himself down to fit into exactly what the Bucks needed at the five, and Poeltl can do the same. During his prime, Poeltl was somewhat of an offensive hub at times, and Lopez was a scorer. But adjusting to a scaled-down role and being what the Bucks needed at the five is what kept his career alive for so long.
That’s what Poeltl needs to focus on at training camp and going into next season. If he can just embrace rebounding, blocking shots, and finishing the occasional play, the Raptors' title odds look a lot better.
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