This is the time of year when optimism and hope settle into place amongst fans throughout the NBA. With Raptors media day just around the corner, it will give us a chance to see where the coaches and the players’ mindsets are at and what they’re looking to improve on this season.
If we dial back to last year’s media day, Raptors starting center Jakob Poeltl gave a very blunt statement on expectations going into the campaign.
""I think we all know we are not going to attack the championship this year. It makes no sense for us to try to win every single game as much as we can and sacrifice development.""Jakob Poeltl on Media Day 2024
He wasn’t wrong. Toronto would go on to finish the season with an underwhelming record of 30-52. What made this record even more disappointing is that they failed to tank strategically enough to position themselves with decent lottery odds.
With all of that behind them now, the Raptors need to set their sights on taking a big step forward. In 2024-25, the odds-makers had the Raptors' win total set at 31.5, which they went under on. Some books had them listed at 29.5 total wins, but either way, it was a lost season for this franchise.
Toronto’s win total this year is set at 37.5 according to the majority of sportsbooks. Some even have them as high as 39.5.
Can the Raptors crack the 40-win mark this season?
It would be the first time reaching that total in the Darko Rajakovic era. Over the last two seasons with Coach Darko at the helm, the Raptors have amassed only 55 wins (25 in his debut season and 30 last year). It’s safe to say, with a cast of new additions and Rajakovic entering year three, expectations are set much higher as it’s time to put this rebuild to the test.
It feels as if the Raptors are somewhat undervalued at only six additional wins this year, especially after acquiring star forward Brandon Ingram at the deadline and depth piece Sandro Mamukelashvili in the offseason. Not to mention, recent lottery pick Collin Murray-Boyles is expected to serve a prominent role almost immediately.
If the Raptors can surpass 37 wins and even hit the 40-win mark, this would undoubtedly place them in play-in tournament conversations.
Prediction: Over 37.5 Wins
In an Eastern Conference full of uncertainties, the Raptors face an opportunity to build on their identity and chemistry from last year. There’s always the topic of health, which has been an issue with this Scottie Barnes-led squad. Tank or no tank, Toronto was without key players like RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley with over 70 combined missed contests. Add in Brandon Ingram, who hasn’t played over 70 games since his rookie season, and injuries could completely derail their season before the Raptors ever find their footing, just like last year.
Another question mark is how big a leap the Raptors can make in regards to their shooting (especially from distance). It’s another reason why the addition of Brandon Ingram needs to have an immediate impact, as the Raptors finished towards the bottom of the league last year in shooting. If players like Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji can progress as well, it will go a long way to cleaning up a major concern with this roster.
That said, this Raptors team, as constructed, must hit 40 wins. According to Sportrac, Toronto ranks in the top 10 most expensive teams in terms of salary cap, most of it being tied up in their starting lineup. Anything short of a playoff berth this season for the Toronto Raptors would be a massive shortcoming. 37.5 wins isn’t just attainable, but a number they should eclipse with ease on their way to surpassing 40 wins.