It has been a rough go-around for Jakob Poeltl and the Toronto Raptors, in the aftermath of their highly questionable extension completed last summer.
Trying to think of it from the Raptors' perspective, I could totally understand why having a retaining a big like Poeltl on this roster was so important prior to entering the next season. But regarding the number and especially for a center who was ready to enter the north side of his 30's for the duration of the deal, I think many were already keeping their eye on this deal turning out to be a troublesome deal on Toronto's salary sheets.
Sadly, those detractors have largely been right, given Poeltl's 2025-26 availability being rendered to 42 games played. The infamous back injury is no secret at this point and having to navigate around that hurdle has not only been a thorn Poeltl's side, but definitely the Raptors orgnization too. Poeltl has missed significant time in his prior two seasons with Toronto, having played just 50 games in the 2023-24 season and 57 games during last year's campaign.
To justify the high number that Poeltl is set to make (up to $27 million in 2027-28, a slight jump to $29 million in 2028-29, then back down to $27 million in 2029-30), I think the Raptors were hoping to get a bit more run out of Poeltl than simply hovering around the 50-game mark once again. Unfortunately, he's even fallen short of reaching that margin.
While Poeltl has been active in recent games, his performance hasn't been so impressive as to completely dismiss the serious concerns. However, he did show some good play in late February and during Toronto's mixed results in March.
Which brings me to the point of this piece.
While the overall consensus on Poeltl is that he's been disappointing, it reminds me of an important point I noted during a coaches' open house before the season started. During assistant coach James Wade's session, I vividly recall him emphasizing Poeltl's impact on the team. He said, verbatim: "Jakob Poeltl has to grab 10 rebounds for us to be successful."
Jakob Poeltl's ability to grab 10+ rebounds is key to the Raptors' success
For a 7-foot big man, 10 rebounds should be the bare minimum though, right? Last season, Poeltl actually nearly reached that mark, averaging 9.6 rebounds per game. This year, however, he's only averaging 7.3 rebounds, falling short of the coach's preseason benchmark.
The results support this: when Poeltl records 10 or more rebounds, the Toronto Raptors have a strong 7-2 record. In games where Poeltl records fewer than 10 rebounds, their record has been 16-17 — essentially a coin toss between wins and losses. While the sample size is larger for the games with fewer rebounds, it still highlights what Coach Wade emphasized.
The data makes it hard to ignore the importance of Poeltl's rebounding for the team's success and just having that size truly present out there for both the eye test and the box score.
But here's the thing: looking at the Raptors' last game against Boston, it was an absolute disasterclass for Poeltl to be quite honest. He finished with just a total of two rebounds, which is completely unacceptable on multiple fronts. Toronto lost the rebounding battle overall to Boston, only securing 31 boards to the Celtics' 44. After a rough showcase like that, anything more than two rebounds would've sufficed, but even then, there is still a wealth of questions that remain with Jak going forward.
Can he maintain a healthy status as the Raptors look to move forward? How does he fit with this core long-term?
The reality is that Poeltl will likely remain a key part of the team because of his costly and undesirable contract. Therefore, Toronto will need Jakob Poeltl to live up to grabbing 10-plus rebounds, as this significantly boosts their chances of winning. This sense of urgency only amplifies in a playoff atmosphere, too. And if he can sustain this level of performance consistently, opinions might shift in his favor, potentially viewing his contract in a much friendlier light.