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NBA Trade Deadline 2015: Arron Afflalo on the block – a Raptors target?

By Brian Boake

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BACKGROUND

Word out of Denver has the Nuggets willing to move shooting guard Arron Afflalo for a first-round draft pick. The Nuggets’ 19-32 record would see them in the pack of teams trying to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs – but they’re a Western team. Consequently their playoff hopes are nil, so they are retooling. Denver’s Pawn-to-Queen-4 opening gambit was the trade last month of giant centre Timofey Mozgov to Cleveland for two first-rounders. The idea that the Nuggets would accept another draft pick in exchange for Afflalo has merit, in my view.

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Would the Toronto Raptors want Afflalo enough to make a deal for him? Let’s consider him for a moment – Arron is a 6’5″, 215-lb., 29-year-old veteran of nine seasons, and 5 post-season trips. Seemingly unaffected by an unflattering #27 selection in the 2007 draft out of UCLA, Arron has built himself a highly respectable career. Afflalo still has the quicks and savvy to create his own shot, which he makes at a healthy 45.5% career rate. Speaking of healthy, he’s averaged 33+ minutes for 4 seasons plus this one, and is rarely hurt. He’s been a starter for years, but would have to accept a bench role with the Raps. That may secretly be to his liking as he ages. Having another scorer off the bench would take significant pressure off Lou Williams’ shoulders. I’ve seen Afflalo play a number of times, and I’d call him a C+ defender. Arron isn’t James Johnson, but who is?

Dec 28, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Arron Afflalo (10) dribbles the ball against Toronto Raptors forward James Johnson (3) in the third quarter at Pepsi Center. The Raptors defeated the Nuggets 116-102. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Arron makes $7.5M this year, and has a tiny bump for next season, on which he holds a player option. In other words, he could opt out of his contract after this year, or opt in for ’15-’16 at $7.75M.

SUGGESTED TRADE

Faithful readers won’t be surprised that I’m trading Landry Fields, as I try to dump him into virtually every deal, although I’m certain Denver’s GM Tim Connelly won’t talk very long with Masai Ujiri unless our 2015 first-rounder is included. (FYI: Chuck Hayes can be used in place of Landry, and the trade still works.) Given that our pick is likely to be #20 or later, does this deal make sense for us?

ANALYSIS & VERDICT

Losing Fields or Hayes is moot; the only question remains the value of the pick. If Arron walks, we’ve enjoyed a 30-game rental, plus playoffs. That’s not much return – is it worth doing this trade? [deep breath] Yes – the Raps can certainly use a veteran like this fellow in the playoffs. Arron will enjoy returning to the postseason, and joining a Raps team which should be a contender for years to come. Patrick Patterson, Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez…they all could have walked after last season, yet chose to return. Arron could conceivably opt out, get a raise from Masai, and come back.

Call Denver, Masai. Our offer may be the best the Nuggets get for a player whom they know won’t stick around for a rebuild.

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